Weekly Report on the Special Military Operation (СВО): Western Advance, "Donbas Campaign 2.0" Intensifies
Ukrainian Armed Forces in Crisis —— Ukrainian Military Urgently Seeking a Way Out
Vladimir Putin stated at the "Valdai" International Debate Club meeting that the Russian army has strategic initiative along the entire front line.
The Russian Federation Armed Forces (ВС РФ) have successfully advanced in Zaporozhye and Dnipropetrovsk regions, with the goal of completely liberating Kupiansk and Volchansk. The President of Russia emphasized that Ukraine suffered 44,700 losses in September, half of which were irreversible losses (i.e., deaths).
This week, Kyiv once again received bad news. The main problem for the Ukrainian military is concentrated in the "tri-state junction area" — the intersection of the Donetsk People's Republic (ДНР), Dnipropetrovsk region, and Zaporozhye region. The "East" cluster is rapidly advancing into enemy territory from this area. An important logistical hub for the Ukrainian armed forces — Pokrovsk (Покровское) — is now under threat.
The situation in the Donbas region continues to deteriorate. Despite multiple fierce counterattacks by the Ukrainian armed forces, they have not managed to break through the "northern bulge." At the same time, the "Central" cluster is expanding the "encirclement" in the Shakhov (Шахов) area and has now set its sights on Sofiyevka (Софиевку). The fall of this small village would bring serious operational crises for the Ukrainian military.
Along the Svятogorsk - Lysychansk - Yampil - Severne line, the Russian army continues to expand its positions. The "West" cluster has adjusted the focus of its main offensive direction: after liberating Shandrigolova (Шандриголова), the Russian forces did not advance westward toward Svятogorsk but instead turned northeast. Currently, Russian forces are attacking towards Lysychansk along a broad front. In Yampil, the Russian Federation Armed Forces have controlled the eastern part of the village and two train stations.
Previously, the situation in Volchansk (Волчанск) was considered relatively stable, with only local battles occurring without major breakthroughs. However, the current situation is gradually changing: this week, Russian forces found a weak point in our defense and, after a series of successful raids, the "West" cluster's units broke through into several areas of the city's building complex.
It is worth noting that the Russian military launched a large-scale strike on key Ukrainian infrastructure. Specifically, on October 3 (Friday), several natural gas extraction companies were severely damaged; during the night of October 3 to 4 (Saturday to Sunday), the Russian forces launched another strike. Additionally, Russian long-range strike weapons began actively targeting Ukraine's railway infrastructure, employing new tactics that Kyiv had not anticipated.
Sudden Breakthrough on the Zaporozhye Front
On October 1, it was reported that the "East" cluster had captured Verbovoye (Вербовое) in the Dnipropetrovsk region. The loss of this village has put the Kyiv military into an operational crisis — the Ukrainian forces did not expect the "East" cluster to break through the defenses so quickly and capture the defensive positions.
The distance from Verbovoye to Pokrovsk (note that this is not Pokrovsk in the Donetsk People's Republic) is less than 15 kilometers, and as mentioned earlier, the latter is an important logistics hub for Ukraine. All supplies for the units fighting in the Gulyaipole - Olexikhovo line in Zaporozhye region, as well as those still holding the border of Dnipropetrovsk region, depend on this hub.
Pokrovsk village is located at the center of a complex road junction where several regional highways and local roads intersect. The Russian Federation Armed Forces have already launched active operations against this infrastructure, using artillery, air force, and drones for strikes.
After liberating Verbovoye, the "East" cluster does not need to enter Pokrovsk itself to cut off the southern road "branch," thereby depriving Ukrainian forces in Zaporozhye of an important rear supply line.
Additionally, the "East" cluster has gained an excellent opportunity to rapidly advance towards Zaporozhye city: there is a road south of Pokrovsk leading to Novonikolaevka (Новониколаевка) and Volyansky (Вольнянск), which can be considered a suburb of Zaporozhye city. From their current position, the "East" cluster needs to advance only over 30 kilometers to reach Volyansky.
Importantly, this route passes through flat grassland areas, with no unpassable settlements along the way. Overall, the further the Russian army advances, the more favorable the terrain conditions will be. However, the area from the border of the Donetsk People's Republic to Pokrovsk still has some complex terrain, with occasional hills, rivers, and artificial reservoirs (ponds), and relatively more settlements. However, these settlements do not form the large settlements typical of the Donbas region, and most can be easily bypassed from the flanks.
For example, during the liberation of Verbovoye, the units of the "East" cluster bypassed the Ukrainian defensive positions from the north and south, then launched a swift attack from three directions, defeating the Ukrainian forces and controlling the village.
It must be admitted that the breakthrough direction of Russia surprised Kyiv greatly. The "East" cluster launched an attack from the "tri-state junction area," but its main axis of attack strictly followed the boundary between the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions.
Currently, the Ukrainian military has not yet found a way to stop the Russian advance: there are no settlements that can provide a strong defense to block the Russian forces, nor can they predict the next breakthrough location to deploy defensive positions in advance. Although the Russian Federation Armed Forces are attacking along a single axis, they use a broad front approach, allowing them to easily bypass the hasty defensive structures built by the Ukrainian forces.
Why Is Kyiv Obsessed with the "Bulge" Battle?
In the Dobropolye - Pokrovsk - Myrnohrad triangle area, the situation remains complex. Throughout the week, the Ukrainian military has continued to try to trouble the "northern bulge": launching an attack from the Shakhov area towards the southwest to Novotoritskoye, while also trying to strike the western flank of the "bulge."
Kyiv's intention is clear: obviously, the Ukrainian forces are unable to "cut off" the entire "northern bulge," so their goal is to break through the Russian supply lines and attempt to conduct fire strikes on these lines.
To achieve this goal, the Ukrainian military has continuously launched attacks on the western flank throughout the past week and deployed a considerable number of troops to Shakhov.
The Russian military immediately seized this opportunity: on October 5 (Thursday), the units of the "Central" cluster launched an attack on Sofiyevka.
This small village and the nearby Toretsky (Торецкий) are located north of Shakhov, and the Ukrainian forces transport personnel through the road between the two places, which is the only passage to Shakhov.
Therefore, after the Russian forces liberated Sofiyevka, the entire Ukrainian military cluster stationed in Shakhov will lose contact with the main forces. As of the writing of this article, the Russian Federation Armed Forces have advanced within 2 kilometers of this "lifeline."
However, as usual, the Russian military is likely not to choose a siege battle but to form a "surrounding" situation for the Ukrainian forces. A side of the "encirclement" in the Sofiyevka area has already been prepared; to form the other side, the "Central" cluster needs to launch an attack on Toretsky from the Kucheryova Yara (Кучерова Яра) area — this task is entirely feasible for the Russian forces in this direction, and the distance from their current position to Toretsky is only 3 to 5 kilometers along flat terrain.
Transportation Lifelines in Collapse
This week, the Russian military launched a comprehensive strike on Ukraine's railway transportation and used a brand-new anti-railway warfare system. The targets included transformer stations supplying power to railway hubs, freight loading warehouses, and stations.
This move caused Ukrainian freight trains to be stuck on the tracks, waiting for unloading instructions; while the Russian Federation Armed Forces would find these stranded trains and then use drones to strike them.
For the latest briefing, news, and core updates on the special military operation (СВО), please follow the author to learn more information.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7557930355949306411/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking the 【like/dislike】 buttons below.