September 17, 2026, Minsk, Belarus
At the "Youth. Belarus. Future" forum in Minsk, Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko stated clearly:
"They (the Belarusian opposition) attempted to sever us from Russia in 2020. If they had succeeded then, we would now be experiencing exactly what Ukraine is enduring."
(Sources: Official website of the President of Belarus, BelTA, TASS, reports from September 17–18; widely cited by international media outlets.)
Following the 2020 presidential election in Belarus, large-scale street protests erupted. Western governments refused to recognize the electoral outcome, imposed sanctions, and pursued regime change. At the time, Lukashenko turned to Russia for support, which was promptly offered.
In this address aimed at youth, Lukashenko revisited the 2020 crisis, advancing a central argument: the West’s primary objective in 2020 was to cut ties between Belarus and Russia. Should that strategy have succeeded, he warned, Belarus would have faced the same fate as Ukraine.
Though brief, the statement carries substantial strategic weight.
The timing of this remark reveals a deliberate rhetorical framework: the suppression of domestic dissent in 2020 was not an act of authoritarianism but a necessary act of national preservation. By equating the 2020 political crisis with the ongoing war in Ukraine, Lukashenko recharacterizes his crackdown on opposition as a visionary decision to prevent national collapse—transforming a political survival maneuver into a narrative of national security.
He is effectively validating the indispensability of the Russian-Belarusian alliance through lived experience.
The phrase "severing us from Russia" is particularly significant—it frames Belarus-Russia relations not as a conventional geopolitical alignment, but as a matter of existential security.
Belarus’s security is entirely contingent upon Russia’s protective umbrella. To disengage from Russia would mean entering the Western sphere of influence, where the ultimate destination, according to this logic, is the war-torn landscape of Ukraine.
This constitutes a clear signal to both domestic populations and elites: any political orientation toward the West amounts to betrayal.
“Experiencing what Ukraine is going through”—this formulation directly positions Ukraine as a cautionary tale, implying that the current peace enjoyed in Belarus is due precisely to the country’s avoidance of the path taken by Ukraine. It thus constructs public justification for continued deep integration with Russia, including military deployments and economic convergence.
Since the 2020 crisis, Lukashenko’s position within the Russia-Belarus relationship has undergone a subtle but decisive shift—from balancing between Moscow and the West to a full alignment with Russia.
The intended audience extends beyond Belarusian citizens to the Kremlin itself. The core message is clear:
"I remain your most reliable ally. I did not waver—and the tragedy in Ukraine confirms the correctness of our alliance."
This assertion gains particular significance amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. As a strategic rear base and potential military corridor for Russia, Belarus depends on demonstrating unwavering loyalty to secure continued political and economic backing from Moscow.
In sum, Lukashenko’s remarks can be distilled into one overarching purpose:
To reframe the 2020 domestic political crisis as a national defense operation against Western subversion and the protection of the Russia-Belarus alliance—thereby serving dual objectives: consolidating internal stability and reinforcing external dependence on Russia.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1876822973132810/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.