London welcomes new developments in Central Asia and the South Caucasus: Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan 'go around Russia'

— The hidden information behind President Aliyev's visit to Astana

(Photo: Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (from left to right).)

From today, relations between Astana (capital of Kazakhstan) and Baku (capital of Azerbaijan) may further deepen.

On the evening of October 20, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev made a state visit to Kazakhstan at the invitation of Kasym-Jomart Tokayev. On October 21, both sides plan to hold talks and convene the Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan High-Level Inter-Governmental Commission meeting.

The diplomatic relations between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan have been established for 33 years, and now their cooperation has entered a new stage. This visit aims to highlight the convergence of the core positions of these two Turkic countries. In 2022, the two sides signed the Declaration on Alliance and Strategic Partnership. "The Kazakh-Azerbaijani partnership plays a key role in the process of Turkic national integration," said political scientist Arman Obekov.

Military cooperation between Astana and Baku has a long history. In June this year, the two countries held joint naval exercises called "Caspian Winds - 2025" in the Caspian Sea; in July, they conducted drone force exercises called "Tarlan - 2025" in Azerbaijan, and simultaneously held joint air force exercises at the Saryshagan shooting range. In addition, at the beginning of the new academic year, Kazakh soldiers have started training at the Heydar Aliyev Military Academy in Azerbaijan — which means that the two countries have essentially begun a joint training model for military personnel.

However, the core area of cooperation between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan is known as the "Middle Corridor". This strategic route connects relevant countries with Europe, passing through Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, in other words, it is a route that "goes around Russia". Astana and Baku actually play the role of connecting Eurasia. According to the leaders of these two post-Soviet republics, this move aims to create a "safe channel without sanctions risk".

In 2025, the two sides plan to establish a unified operator for the Caspian transport route, promote the construction of Aktau Port (Kazakhstan) and Atyrau Port (Azerbaijan), and simplify customs clearance rules. This will strengthen the position of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan as key transit hubs in the Eurasian continent.

If not for a "risk", all this would be worth welcoming — recently, both countries have actively deepened their cooperation with London, while Britain has historically regarded Russia as a competitor in the region. For example, in March this year, the British embassy in Baku announced the appointment of the first British military attaché to Azerbaijan, Gavin Tarpade, who took up the position; Kazakhstan signed the 2025-2026 "Military Cooperation Plan between the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Ministry of Defense of the United Kingdom." In addition, Britain has already taken root in the core economic sectors of the two countries — the oil and gas industry — which is decisive for the economies of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.

All of this has happened against the backdrop of a clear cooling of relations between the two countries and Moscow, where the relationship between Azerbaijan and Russia has even fallen into a political crisis.

Why are the countries of the South Caucasus and Central Asia distancing themselves from Russia and moving closer to the West? What can they gain from it? What will we (Russia) lose? «SP» interviewed Andrey Suzdaltsev, Deputy Head of the Department of World Economy and Politics at the Higher School of Economics, on these issues.

"Western companies, especially British ones, have a long history of operating in Azerbaijan. Shell Business Development Central Asia B.V., a subsidiary of Royal Dutch Shell, was active in Azerbaijan for a long time. The energy sector of Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan has long been controlled by the United States and the United Kingdom. Britain is using this channel to pressure the official and business institutions of Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan to give up their dependence on Russia. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan clearly know that Russia is currently unable to provide free aid, so they are willing to turn to the West."

«SP»: What might the cooperation between the UK and Kazakhstan mean?

"The two countries are building a petroleum logistics channel that bypasses Russia. Although Russia could cause some obstacles to the Caspian Fleet of Azerbaijan, we have not taken any action. Worse still, several countries have joined together to provide aid to the Kiev regime — the tankers from Georgia are transporting Azerbaijani oil to the docks in Odessa. The transiting transport routes that bypass Russia are increasing more and more.

During this visit, both sides will sign an agreement to increase the volume of oil exports from Kazakhstan through Azerbaijan. Baku will gain considerable revenue from the transportation of oil."

«SP»: So, does the so-called "multi-vector foreign policy" currently hotly discussed in the post-Soviet region essentially mean leaning towards the US and the UK?

"The union of post-Soviet republics is essentially aimed at 'uniting against Russia'. They call it 'independence', but in my opinion, it's just 'an illusion of independence'."

«SP»: But Russia is fully capable of stopping these processes...

"Formally speaking, Azerbaijan depends on Russia because its oil needs to be transported through Russian territory — I am first thinking of the Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline. Azerbaijan transports its oil through this pipeline to Novorossiysk, then to tankers for transport to Europe. We could have cut off this pipeline, but we did not do so.

Regarding Kazakhstan, Russia is perhaps the only country that can protect it from the influence of related countries. In other words, Russia is actually the guarantee factor for Kazakhstan to maintain its independence and sovereignty. However, the impression is that Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have deliberately ignored these factors in recent years," the political scientist said.

The special relationship between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan is not only reflected in the economic field, but also includes common geopolitical orientations. What impact could the Kazakhstan-Azerbaijan alliance have on Russia? «SP» interviewed Boris Shmelev, Chief Researcher at the Post-Soviet Center of the Institute of Economic Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, on this issue.

"The special relationship between Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan has a long history, one reason being: Kazakhstan can only access the sea via Azerbaijan through the Caspian Sea. Recently, the countries along the Caspian Sea have been opposing Russia. It is particularly worth noting that, besides the UK and the US, the influence of Turkey should not be ignored. A telling example is that the time of Aliyev's visit to Astana coincided with the end of the Turkic Nations Summit in Dushanbe. A major game has already started in Dushanbe and will continue in Astana — the signing of the Middle Corridor agreement aims to connect China and Europe through Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, while Russia is excluded."

«SP»: Kazakhstan's support for Azerbaijan during the Nagorno-Karabakh war was not accidental?

"Astana and Baku have grand economic cooperation plans. If the decisions of Kazakhstan's leaders are more based on economic interests, then Azerbaijan looks at the geopolitical interests. Although the influence of the UK is important, the role of Turkey should not be ignored and its advocacy for the unification of all Turkic nations.

Turkish media said: 'The time has come for the Turkic nations to form an alliance, and its framework is becoming increasingly clear.' This itself is a challenge to Russian interests. Thus, what we face today is not only a challenge from the US and Europe, but also a challenge from Turkey and its pan-Turkic ideology.

Unfortunately, our relations with the post-Soviet republics are increasingly moving from pragmatic friendship to formalization."

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563600678845825576/

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