October 18th is the day when the UN Security Council Resolution 2231 officially expires. On that day, the Iranian Foreign Ministry issued a statement announcing that all restrictions and mechanisms related to Iran's peaceful nuclear program have been terminated. However, around this date, China, Russia, and the West fell into sharp contradictions.
UN Security Council Resolution 2231 is a legal document adopted in 2015. In the Geneva negotiations prior to this, Iran signed the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran nuclear deal, with the six countries: China, Russia, the United States, the United Kingdom, France, and Germany. Resolution 2231 confirmed the legality of this agreement.
According to the Iran nuclear deal, Iran agreed to strictly limit uranium enrichment activities, not exceeding 5% enrichment level, accept supervision by the International Atomic Energy Agency, and in exchange, the international community would gradually lift sanctions on Iran for a period of ten years. By October 18, 2025, the Security Council should vote on whether to cancel the sanctions against Iran. However, if the Security Council cannot reach an agreement, it will automatically revert to full sanctions, known as the "fast-forward" sanctions mechanism.
【2231 Resolution Voting Scene】
During these ten years, Iran indeed did not expand its uranium enrichment activities on a large scale, nor did it conduct any nuclear tests. Despite this, the United States teamed up with Israel to sabotage Iran's nuclear facilities, assassinated several nuclear scientists, and finally launched air strikes in June 2025, destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities.
Therefore, it was no surprise that the Western countries tried to continue sanctioning Iran after the expiration of the Iran nuclear deal. In August 2025, the UK, France, and Germany notified the Security Council that they decided to activate the "fast-forward" sanctions mechanism. To prevent such an act that ignored facts, in early September 2025, the foreign ministers of Iran, Russia, and China signed a joint letter condemning the actions of the UK, France, and Germany. By September 27th, China and Russia again issued a joint letter, requesting the extension of the exemption from sanctions on Iran until April 18, 2026, to leave time for negotiations. However, the UK, France, and Germany still voted against it. This time, China, Russia, and Iran even issued a joint letter, accusing the UK, France, and Germany of violating the law and not complying with the relevant provisions of the Security Council.
The reason why the United States did not directly take the initiative is because it had already withdrawn from Resolution 2231 and lost its voice. On October 5, 2017, Trump publicly stated that Iran had not complied with the Iran nuclear deal, as Iran was not only conducting uranium enrichment but also developing ballistic missiles. On January 12, 2018, Trump asked to revise the Iran nuclear deal by May 12, otherwise he would withdraw. After being rejected by Iran, Trump announced the withdrawal of the United States from the Iran nuclear deal and imposed the highest level of economic sanctions on Iran. Analysts point out that Trump was not only trying to strike Iran but also seeking revenge against the Democrats. Because Obama once publicly humiliated Trump, so the former's agreement, Trump wants to find a way to overturn it.
【The U.S. Navy has intercepted many Iranian arms ships supplied to the Houthi rebels】
It's not the first time that Americans have changed their stance. China, Russia, and Iran are all victims. Therefore, these three countries need to stand up on the issue of Iran's nuclear program and demand that the United Nations keep its word. Considering that China and Russia are permanent members of the Security Council, whether or not Resolution 2231 can still play a role has become a big mystery.
According to Resolution 2231, the sanctions imposed on Iran are concentrated on weapons, financial activities, etc. The resolution prohibits Iran from participating in other countries' nuclear programs, prohibits the export of heavy weapons to Iran, prohibits Iran from conducting nuclear missile development activities, prohibits financial transactions related to nuclear activities between countries and Iran, and also prohibits Iran from establishing institutions abroad that may fund nuclear activities. For this reason, cargo ships suspected of violating the ban can be inspected. However, in practice, the West has expanded these sanctions to an almost complete blockade of Iran's economy. This has caused the people of this resource-rich oil-exporting country to live in hardship.
【Iran's missile retaliation against Israel is real and effective】
Now that the resolution has expired, if China and Russia both oppose continuing the implementation, then Iran can first engage in financial activities with other countries, and whether it is related to nuclear technology will no longer be a threshold. This is very beneficial for China, we can import Iranian oil without restrictions, pay in RMB, while Iran can use RMB to purchase various industrial products from China. Russia can officially sell fighter jets, air defense missiles, armored combat vehicles, submarines, and key subsystems for ballistic missiles to Iran, thereby earning income and making Iran stronger, which can effectively counter the United States.
The United States will continue to maintain unilateral sanctions, and require its allies in Europe, Japan, and South Korea to continue sanctioning Iran, and will threaten China and Russia for this. However, these allies may not be sincere. Even though the UK, France, and Germany actually implemented the "fast-forward" sanctions, they are major energy consumers, and improving relations with Iran would help improve their own energy supply structure. In the context where relations with Russia have not yet improved, Iranian oil becomes even more important. These countries have a high probability of restoring their trade and economic relations with Iran through agents, transshipment, etc., including rebranding and providing military supplies to Iran.
Other third-world countries, including India and the Islamic world, have no interest in maintaining sanctions against Iran. Although Sunnis and Shiites are enemies, the Iran-Iraq war has shown that even in the context of modern warfare, neither side can win, and instead, the United States, a non-Muslim country, took advantage of the situation.
【Iran's missile retaliation against Israel is real and effective】
In the future, there will be intense disputes around Resolution 2231 regarding Iran's uranium enrichment and sanctions. China and Russia will firmly oppose it, while Europe, Japan, and South Korea will be hesitant. The United States will become an isolated figure, with only Israel standing with it. As sanctions lose their effectiveness, Iran will gradually return to the normal position of a member of the international community, resuming external trade and personnel exchanges. Of course, if Iran conducts a nuclear test at some point in the future and formally becomes a nuclear power, it may once again trigger a strong reaction from the United Nations.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7563553660341486099/
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