Key oil trade volumes between Russia and India have declined but have not stopped completely

After months of U.S. pressure, the amount of crude oil India imports from Russia is expected to drop to a four-year low early next year. With the emergence of workarounds and the Kremlin increasing its own charm offensive, the question is how long this decline will last.

So far, India has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of Russia's oil industry restrictions and has become the largest buyer of seaborne Russian crude due to significant price discounts caused by the restrictions. In June, India's daily imports reached nearly record levels, at 2.1 million barrels per day, accounting for about 45% of its total imports.

In contrast, according to people involved in procurement, the amount of oil shipments arriving in India from Russia next month may fall to as little as 600,000 barrels per day, the lowest level since the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022. This is attributed to the Trump administration's aggressive actions against what it called procurement activities that fund the Kremlin's war machine, as well as sanctions on major producers Rosneft PJSC and Lukoil PJSC.

Nevertheless, even the low point in January is far higher than pre-war levels.

More importantly, according to traders and refiners, trade volumes may rebound as unapproved suppliers intensify their entry into the market and a large number of new trading intermediaries emerge. Russian President Vladimir Putin also visited Delhi this week to promote his trade proposals and pledged to continue "uninterrupted fuel delivery."

Meanwhile, the迟迟未能达成的 trade agreement with the United States has left India less eager to follow Washington's lead. Last month, former President Donald Trump said he would lower punitive tariffs on India "at some point."

Elizabeth Broul, a senior researcher at the Atlantic Council, said that while U.S. sanctions have increased obstacles, they are not enough to completely stop trade.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1850913488204876/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author themselves.