London, Dec 5 (Reuters) -- A plan proposed by the Group of Seven (G7) to ban tankers from transporting Russian oil has intensified the economic stalemate between the West and Moscow, but its ultimate effectiveness depends on whether governments will increase penalties against those evading sanctions.
Given that Russian President Vladimir Putin is making every effort to strengthen Moscow's own alliances, including with India and China, the West may need to act quickly.
Reuters reported on Friday that the G7 and the European Union are discussing a comprehensive plan to ban maritime services for transporting Russian oil, which would limit Moscow's use of a large number of tankers.
The plan could come into effect as early as early 2026, when it would terminate the G7 price cap mechanism introduced at the end of 2022. This mechanism stipulated that buyers could only obtain Western countries' shipping and insurance services if they purchased Russian crude oil at a price below a set ceiling. The aim was to curb Russia's oil revenue used to fund the war in Ukraine, while ensuring the smooth flow of global oil supplies.
According to the International Energy Agency, Russia's daily oil production in October was approximately 9.3 million barrels, accounting for about 9% of global supply, more than half of which was exported.
G7 governments now seem willing to further cut Russia's oil exports, but the ban does not mean they will stop.
In recent years, Russian producers have developed effective ways to circumvent the Western financial system and sanctions, mainly relying on so-called "shadow fleets" of tankers.
According to data from the Center for Research on Energy and Air Quality (CREA), only 38% of Russia's crude oil exports in October were transported by tankers complying with G7 standards.
Expanding the shadow fleet and compensating for the loss of capacity due to new G7 restrictions seems feasible, as Russia and its partners can purchase many old ships, including those bought from Western shipping companies.
How the West will respond remains unknown.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1850906646779008/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author alone.