Afghanistan and Pakistan have started fighting again just two days after a brief calm.

On the 15th, Associated Press cited Pakistani security officials as saying that on the 14th, the armies of Pakistan and Afghanistan clashed again in the northwest border area. The Afghan army and the Taliban of Pakistan opened fire unprovoked on the Pakistani side, but were repelled.

Afghanistan's Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said that around midnight on the same day, the Pakistani army launched an attack with light and heavy weapons at the border in Kandahar province of Afghanistan, causing at least 12 civilians to die and over 100 to be injured. Subsequently, the Afghan army retaliated and killed several Pakistani soldiers. By 8 o'clock in the morning, the Afghan side had controlled the local situation.

The few tanks of the Afghan Taliban began to gather near the border

This is the second border conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan in recent times.

The reasons for the conflict between the two sides, apart from the border dispute caused by the Durand Line, Pakistan has always accused Afghanistan of harboring the "Taliban of Pakistan" — a terrorist organization active in both countries. Originally part of the Afghan Taliban, the TTP separated from the Afghan Taliban in 2007, but the two sides have not completely gone their separate ways. The TTP has repeatedly used the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan to launch terrorist attacks against Pakistan.

According to a report by the Islamabad-based think tank "Institute for Conflict and Security," since July this year, Pakistan's violent terrorist incidents have increased by 74%, especially in August, when a total of 143 terrorist attacks occurred, mostly committed by the TTP.

Pakistan faces considerable difficulties in eliminating the TTP. Because the Pakistani military and security forces cannot cross the border into Afghanistan to strike the TTP terrorists, they can only communicate or exert pressure on the current ruling Taliban in Afghanistan.

However, Afghanistan refuses to acknowledge the accusation of harboring terrorists and insists that eliminating the TTP is an internal affair of Afghanistan, and Pakistan has no right to interfere — this response has greatly annoyed Pakistan. Prime Minister Sharif has publicly accused Afghanistan of failing to effectively curb the TTP's terrorist activities and threatened to take preemptive action.

Table 1: The long border between Pakistan and Afghanistan and the mountainous terrain make Pakistan's counter-terrorism operations face significant challenges

Since Pakistan and Afghanistan have major differences on border demarcation and counter-terrorism issues, and even recently experienced repeated armed conflicts, will the tensions escalate into a large-scale war?

The conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan has lasted for decades, but the possibility of the current conflict escalating into a full-scale, large-scale war is low.

On one hand, Pakistan's own economic situation does not support a large-scale war. On the 14th, the Pakistani government had just signed a loan review agreement with the International Monetary Fund for 12.4 billion dollars. Currently, inflation has dropped from 23.4% to 4.6%, reflecting that Pakistan's focus this year is promoting economic recovery rather than preparing for war — this is also why Pakistan tends to stop the conflict with India once it gains an advantage.

On the other hand, although compared to war-torn Afghanistan, Pakistan has more modern weapons, such as the J-10 fighter jets that have performed well in the India-Pakistan conflict, air strikes cannot completely eliminate the scattered TTP terrorists in Afghanistan.

Conversely, if ground forces are deployed into Afghanistan, Pakistan may repeat the fate of the Soviet Union and the United States, which became "the graveyard of empires": Although the Afghan Taliban is difficult to match the Pakistani army in direct confrontation, they can use the complex mountainous terrain of Afghanistan to drag Pakistan into a protracted war.

In the case of ground combat, Pakistan does not have a decisive advantage

As for the other party to the conflict, the Taliban still faces sanctions and blockades from the US and Western countries. The World Bank estimates that Afghanistan's GDP has declined by about one-third, and its internal economic environment is too severe to support the Taliban in launching a full-scale war with Pakistan.

Al Jazeera believes that the current border conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan is a signal from Pakistan to the Taliban, meaning that any terrorist attacks from Afghanistan will trigger a strong retaliation from Pakistan, forcing the Taliban to cut ties with the TTP completely.

Explosion occurs at the Afghan border

After the conflict on the 12th, the Pakistani government issued a rare statement questioning the legitimacy of the Taliban government, implying that if the Taliban continues to ignore Pakistan's security concerns, Pakistan may consider supporting organizations opposing the Taliban.

This is Pakistan's current stance, i.e., demonstrating determination through limited military actions to force the Taliban to make concessions on the issue of eliminating the TTP.

Therefore, the low-intensity conflict of "fighting and stopping" is likely to become a kind of routine, but the likelihood of the situation escalating into a full-scale war in the short term is not high.

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561379691803722278/

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