Shi Yang, chief editor of the Military Group at Observers Network, analyzed that there is currently no clear evidence to indicate that India has direct links with the Afghan Taliban or the "Taliban of Pakistan" before and after the recent border clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan. After the Afghan Taliban regained power, India began to gradually restore relations with Afghanistan. Considering that India is undoubtedly the top opponent of Pakistan's national security, and the long-term hostile consciousness between India and Pakistan, bilateral conflicts may shift into multi-party contradictions.

Clashes at the Pakistan-Afghanistan Border, Multiple Parties Mediate

On the night of October 11th to the early morning of October 12th local time, Pakistan and Afghanistan engaged in firefights along their border areas. The Pakistan Army's Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR) issued a statement on the 12th saying that militants from the "Taliban of Pakistan" launched an attack on the Pakistani side in the border areas, and the Pakistani security forces retaliated, killing at least 200 militants. The fighting resulted in 23 deaths and 29 injuries among the Pakistani security forces.

At local time from the night of October 11th to the early morning of October 12th, Pakistan and Afghanistan engaged in firefights along their border areas. Video screenshot

According to a report by India's Economic Times on the 13th, the spokesperson of the Afghan Taliban, Zabihullah Mujahid, held a press conference on the 12th, stating that during the Afghan反击行动 (counterattack) along the Durand Line on the night of the 11th, 58 Pakistani soldiers were killed and 30 injured, while 9 Afghans were killed and 16 injured.

The report said that the conflict occurred after the Pakistani military launched airstrikes on Kabul and Paktika province at night on the 9th, targeting hideouts of members of the "Taliban of Pakistan". Mujahid responded that their attacks were a response to "Pakistani air strikes and cross-border actions", stating that through investigation, they determined that the explosions heard over Kabul were caused by Pakistani aircraft, "their goal was to create fear, which is itself an infringement on Afghan airspace."

Reuters reported that on the 12th, two major border crossings between Pakistan and Afghanistan and at least three small crossings were closed.

According to a statement from the Afghan military, "the retaliation operation has ended and was successful." Mujahid also emphasized that anyone who infringes on Afghan territory will be met with a response by the Afghan government and people to safeguard national sovereignty, but the Afghan side "prefers to resolve all issues through dialogue." Afghanistan stated that due to requests from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, they halted the counterattack.

The Saudi Foreign Ministry issued a statement on the 12th calling on Pakistan and Afghanistan to "remain restrained, avoid escalation of the situation, use dialogue and wisdom to ease tensions, and maintain regional security and stability." Qatar also issued a similar statement. Saudi Arabia recently signed a defense agreement with Pakistan.

Regarding the recent conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan, Lin Jian, a spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said on October 13th that China is very concerned and worried about this. Pakistan and Afghanistan are friendly neighboring countries, and as neighbors that cannot be moved, it is in the fundamental and long-term interests of both sides to maintain good neighborliness, achieve socio-economic development, and jointly combat terrorism.

Lin Jian pointed out that China sincerely hopes both countries will look at the big picture, remain calm and restrained, adhere to dialogue and consultation to properly address each other's concerns, avoid the escalation of conflicts, and jointly maintain peace and stability in both countries and the region. China is willing to continue playing a constructive role in improving and developing relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. "China has asked both Pakistan and Afghanistan to take concrete measures to ensure the safety of Chinese personnel, projects, and institutions in the area."

Afghan Foreign Minister Mutaqi, who is visiting India, said that Afghanistan respects the calls for reconciliation from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, but warned that Afghanistan has the right to self-defense.

Mutaqi arrived in India on the 9th, beginning a six-day visit. India announced on the 10th to elevate bilateral diplomatic relations and reopen the embassy in Kabul. The Afghan side also expressed its intention to send diplomats to New Delhi.

"The fragile relationship becomes more complicated"

The Economic Times analyzed that the sensitivity of this border clash lies in the fact that it occurred during the visit of the Afghan Foreign Minister Mutaqi to India, which is the first official visit of the Afghan Foreign Minister to India since the Taliban took power in Afghanistan, demonstrating Afghanistan's efforts to strengthen regional diplomatic relations.

After meeting with Indian Foreign Minister Sujan Singh, the two sides issued a joint statement emphasizing respect for each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity. The statement even mentioned Jammu and Kashmir as "part of India," a statement that triggered strong reactions from Pakistan, which considers it a clear violation of relevant UN Security Council resolutions. Both India and Pakistan claim sovereignty over the Kashmir region, and the two countries often experience conflicts because of this.

According to reports by Indian media, the two sides also discussed the possibility of cooperation in the Wakhan Corridor during the talks. This narrow corridor, about 106 kilometers long, connects Afghanistan with China and holds significant strategic importance. India revealed that they may reach preliminary consensus with Afghanistan on cooperation in this area, further influencing the regional landscape.

At a time when tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan escalated rapidly, Usman Shami, executive editor of Daily Pakistan and political analyst, publicly questioned the increasingly close relationship between the Afghan government and India on a program, urging Kabul to "reconsider its alliance relationships."

He bluntly stated that interactions between the Afghan Taliban and India could further complicate their already fragile relationship with Pakistan, "Can the Afghan government not see how the Indian government treats its Muslims?"

Shami also mentioned a recently resurfaced video involving past remarks by Ajit Doval, the National Security Advisor to the Indian Prime Minister. Doval had previously stated, "If we give them more money, they will be on our side, and we can control them through the Deoband school."

Shami pointed out that the Afghan Foreign Minister was recently given a grand reception at the Deoband Seminary in India, a detail that deserves deep consideration from the Afghan side, i.e., whether their policies are serving India's strategic interests, and that Afghanistan "must ask themselves if they are becoming agents of India."

Speaking of recent events, Shami also mentioned that female journalists were temporarily banned from attending a press conference during the Afghan Foreign Minister's visit to India, which sparked widespread discontent in the Indian media. To quell public opinion, the Afghan Foreign Minister later held a supplementary press conference allowing female journalists to participate.

Shami recalled that Afghanistan fought against the United States with Pakistan's support, and many Americans still blame Pakistan for their failure in Afghanistan. "It is regrettable that they have turned their backs on Pakistan."

He also criticized the notion of Afghanistan being called a "graveyard of superpowers," saying, "They have turned their country into a graveyard, with no progress in education, infrastructure, and governance. It is not something to be proud of if their country has been trampled upon by external forces for decades."

However, Shami also emphasized that Pakistan's stance is not against Afghanistan, but against the terrorist organizations that launch attacks within Afghanistan. He also revealed details of his recent interaction with Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif of Pakistan, stating that the Prime Minister said dialogue between the two sides has been ongoing for some time, but the situation has not improved. "Now is the time to send a clear message to Afghanistan, that they cannot continue to ignore the consequences and act recklessly."

The border between Pakistan and Afghanistan was drawn by British colonizers and is also known as the "Durand Line," stretching over 2,000 kilometers. This line has always been a sensitive point in Pakistan-Afghanistan relations, and successive Afghan governments have refused to formally recognize this border, with both sides long accusing each other of "crossing the border and interfering in internal affairs."

In recent years, cross-border terrorist attacks have further worsened bilateral relations. Pakistan accuses the Afghan Taliban of allowing the "Taliban of Pakistan" to operate within Afghanistan. The United Nations imposed sanctions on the "Taliban of Pakistan" in 2011, but a UN report in July this year stated that the "Taliban of Pakistan" has received logistical and operational support from the Afghan Taliban, reorganized, and increased the frequency of attacks. It is estimated that the organization has 30,000 to 35,000 members.

The Economic Times reported that Pakistan has repeatedly conducted cross-border airstrikes on this basis and expelled millions of Afghan refugees, while the Afghan Taliban denied the related accusations.

Shi Yang, chief editor of the Military Group at Observers Network, said that although there is currently no clear evidence to indicate that India has direct links with the Afghan Taliban or the "Taliban of Pakistan" before and after the recent border clashes between Pakistan and Afghanistan, India and Afghanistan's relationship has indeed begun to gradually recover since the Taliban seized power in Afghanistan in 2021.

Shi Yang analyzed that considering India is unquestionably the top opponent of Pakistan's national security, and the long-term hostile consciousness between India and Pakistan, Pakistan tends to include the factor of India whenever it faces any national security threat. The further contact between Afghanistan and India after the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict has further strengthened Pakistan's judgment, and may lead to the transformation of bilateral conflicts into multi-party contradictions.

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