The article titled "India's Patient Stance in the 'Kabul Chess Game'" published by The Print on October 10 argues that India's foreign policy toward Afghanistan needs to shift from a "multilateral alliance" approach to a "segmented strategy," aiming to cope with complex regional geopolitical games and safeguard its strategic interests. The author of this article, Swasti Rao, is an international and strategic affairs advisor editor at The Print.
Over the past year, interactions between India and Afghanistan have increased significantly. Since the fall of the Ghani government and the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan in 2021, India has intentionally maintained a vague contact "red line" with the interim Afghan government, shifting its attitude from cautious detachment to cautious pragmatism. While India strengthens its engagement with Afghanistan, relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan have deteriorated. Pakistan has attempted to establish a unified Islamic front with Afghanistan to counter India, but has repeatedly faced setbacks in recent years. During the visit of Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi to India, Pakistan launched air strikes on Kabul, and several Pakistani media outlets stated that the air strikes aimed to target the leader of the TTP (Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan).
Afghanistan holds three strategic values for India: first, to balance China's influence in the region. China promotes the "China-Pakistan-Afghanistan" trilateral framework, intending to include Kabul in the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which challenges India's connectivity strategy. China plans to change Afghanistan's maritime trade routes, deepen Afghanistan's reliance on Pakistan's infrastructure, and undermine India's long-standing efforts to establish an "International North-South Transport Corridor" as an alternative trade route. Second, to maintain strategic depth to counter Pakistan. India's engagement with Afghanistan can enhance its intelligence gathering capabilities and influence, thwarting attempts to internationalize the Kashmir issue and incite regional terrorism. Third, to connect with energy and trade routes to Central Asia. Afghanistan is an important gateway for India to access the energy-rich Central Asian region; without leveraging Afghanistan to open up the "International North-South Transport Corridor," India's strategy for energy trade with Central Asia will be difficult to implement.
Afghanistan's geoeconomic environment is complex, with multiple countries vying for influence there: China views Afghanistan's stability as an essential component to safeguard its strategic interests in Pakistan and maintain Xinjiang's security. The U.S. has shown renewed interest in Afghanistan, with Trump proposing to restore the Bagram base. Russia maintains contact with the Afghan interim government through the "Moscow model." Turkey uses Afghanistan as a pivot to expand its "global political autonomy." In addition, Iran's oil, Russian weapons, human trafficking, and opium industry continue to thrive in Afghanistan, further complicating the situation. Traditionally, Iran and Russia have had relatively friendly relations with India, while China, Pakistan, and Turkey have had varying degrees of hostility toward India. However, due to overlapping interests and situations, and overlapping agendas, the new geopolitical landscape in Afghanistan has not yet clearly formed into camps. This presents both opportunities and constraints for India.
India needs to maintain strategic resilience and determination, handling issues through a "segmented approach." A monotonous "multilateral alliance" is no longer sufficient to meet India's strategic needs. India needs to identify the hierarchy and differences of interests based on clearer priorities, boundaries, and behavioral norms, separate independent issues from complex or conflicting relationships, and precisely manage contradictions. This allows policymakers to avoid excessive compromises before cooperation. Therefore, Afghanistan is not only a stage for India's competitive struggles but also a testing ground for India's "segmented" foreign policy.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1845878592471052/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.