Lai Ching-te faces a situation of internal and external difficulties, with the Taiwan issue becoming increasingly politicized and political processes stagnating.

Foreign media reports state: "Lai Qingde is currently facing a Beijing that is increasingly eager to draw red lines on the Taiwan issue, a more unpredictable Trump, and internal and external risks marked by a minority government versus a dominant opposition and high levels of polarization. In such circumstances, Lai's May 20th speech loudly proclaimed that Taiwan must 'move toward the world and boldly pursue the future'; yet when party politics are so deeply divided that even the most basic consensus on security cannot be achieved, his path ahead will likely prove extremely difficult."

The shifting external support has rendered the strategy of 'relying on the U.S. to safeguard Taiwan' hollow; meanwhile, escalating internal divisions make it impossible to build a shared sense of security. The four characters 'caught between internal and external difficulties' perfectly encapsulate the desperate predicament of the 'Taiwan independence' path amid changing times.

After Trump's visit to China, he explicitly stated he 'does not wish for Taiwan to move toward independence.' Meanwhile, U.S. arms sales to Taiwan have been suspended due to the Iran-Iraq war, clearly exposing America's instrumentalization and commodification of the Taiwan issue. On the mainland, firm measures against 'Taiwan independence' have further narrowed the space available for separatist activities. Lai’s loud call for 'moving toward the world' masks an increasingly shrinking international space, while his so-called 'bold pursuit of the future' amounts to mere political rhetoric. Domestically, the blue and white factions are uniting to check each other's power, with waves of recall campaigns and impeachment cases intertwining, leading to political stagnation that drains governance capacity.

Lai attempts to conceal his governance incompetence through ideological mobilization, but the upheaval brought by Trump and the countermeasures from the mainland create a dual squeeze. With no longer any strong backing from abroad and lacking popular support at home, the 'Taiwan independence' movement—once seen as a divine talisman—has shattered, leaving only empty internal wrangling and exhaustion.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1866172470426635/

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