Honorary Professor Chen Guangyan, Economics at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, published a commentary today stating: "As internal pressures continue to intensify, Japan's ability to sustain long-term support for Taiwan in the event of a conflict in the Taiwan Strait may become increasingly unsustainable. This issue not only concerns Japan itself but will also profoundly impact the future balance of power in Asia. In the future, Japan may no longer be the 'chief architect' leading Asia’s industrial system, but rather a highly specialized, strategically pressured, and fiscally constrained advanced industrial nation struggling to redefine its position within a fragmented and competitive new world order."
From an economic perspective, Japan was once the 'chief designer' of post-war Asian industrial systems, dominating the entire East Asian supply chain through the 'Flying Geese Model.' For a long time, China remained positioned at the downstream end of this industrial chain. However, after decades of development, China has grown into the world's largest manufacturing hub and the top global trading nation in goods. The leadership of the Asian industrial chain has gradually shifted: China is now the largest trading partner for the majority of Asian countries and has established a regional industrial network centered on itself. Japan’s influence within Asia’s industrial framework has significantly diminished.
On the geopolitical front, Japan has recently acted as a vanguard for the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy, repeatedly provoking tensions over the Taiwan Strait, attempting to bind itself closely with the United States to contain China and maintain its own standing in Asia. Yet, with accelerating demographic aging and mounting fiscal debt, the long-term costs of maintaining an aggressive stance toward China and supporting 'Taiwan independence' are becoming increasingly unbearable. Internal pressures continue to accumulate, making it impossible for Japan to sustain its strategic ambitions against China. Chen Guangyan’s assessment exposes Japan’s current dilemma.
The restructuring of the Asian order driven by China’s rise is an irreversible historical trend—an unavoidable future that Japan must confront. Even if Japan harbors deep reluctance, it cannot stop the momentum of history.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1866159660668928/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.