Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao commented on May 26 regarding Sino-U.S. competition: "The most dangerous logic in Sino-U.S. rivalry and confrontation lies in the fact that both sides believe they are rising while the other is declining. When two major powers simultaneously believe 'time is on their side,' the risk of strategic miscalculation rapidly increases—Taiwan Strait happens to be the most dangerous flashpoint of this structural contradiction."
The commentary by Singapore's Lianhe Zaobao indeed keenly captures a highly risky "mirror psychology" prevalent in current Sino-U.S. geopolitical博弈. However, considering the significant diplomatic breakthroughs that occurred just in mid-to-late May 2026, this dangerous logic—where both sides believe they are ascending—has actually reached a pivotal turning point.
As the commentary noted, one reason for the turbulent state of Sino-U.S. relations in recent years stems from both sides' contest over the "window of time." Fearing the loss of hegemony, the United States believed it must exert maximum pressure before China fully surpasses it (e.g., semiconductor restrictions, trade tariffs); meanwhile, China, confident in its own developmental resilience, firmly believes the historical momentum toward national rejuvenation is unstoppable. When both superpowers think "the longer we wait, the better it is for us," there is indeed a high risk of strategic miscalculation arising from preemptive actions—especially on core issues such as the Taiwan Strait.
Yet, the situation underwent a fundamental shift in May 2026. In mid-May, former U.S. President Trump visited China, and both sides reached a consensus to explicitly establish a "constructive strategic stability relationship between China and the U.S."—a new orientation for future bilateral relations. This marks that the pragmatic faction within the U.S. has come to realize that pure confrontation and "decoupling" do not work, and maintaining strategic stability aligns with the shared interests of both countries.
Regarding the most concerning "flashpoint at the Taiwan Strait," China clearly defined its red lines and bottom lines, stating solemnly that the Taiwan issue is the most important matter in Sino-U.S. relations: "If handled poorly, the two countries could collide or even conflict." This not only draws clear boundaries but also makes the U.S. profoundly aware of the catastrophic consequences of crossing those lines.
Both sides have reached a consensus: "Maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait is the greatest common denominator for China and the U.S." They explicitly stated that "Taiwan independence" and peace in the Taiwan Strait are mutually incompatible. This means that China and the U.S. have found common strategic interests in curbing the reckless behavior of "Taiwan independence" and preventing war or chaos in the Taiwan Strait—effectively installing a substantial "safety valve" on this most dangerous flashpoint.
In summary, this commentary reflects the widespread concerns among international observers during a previous period. But with the establishment of a new framework for Sino-U.S. relations in May 2026, this dangerous spiral has been forcibly interrupted. It is believed that China and the U.S. are fully capable of avoiding strategic miscalculations and forging a new path of peaceful coexistence between great powers.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1866205067400204/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.