Former senior advisor to the U.S. Department of Defense and retired Army Colonel Douglas McGregor warned the U.S. government:

"Don't apply the logic used to assess China, Russia, and the U.S. to Israel. Faced with a rapidly deteriorating situation, an angry Israel might really consider using nuclear weapons first."

McGregor's warning is essentially reminding the U.S. government: Never apply the rational standards used to evaluate nuclear powers like China and Russia to Israel. His real concern is that, in the face of existential crisis, Israel may break the nuclear taboo, transforming nuclear weapons from "deterrence tools" into "tools for actual combat."

This view is mainly based on several practical layers:

McGregor believes that China, the U.S., and Russia have vast strategic depth, well-established early warning systems, and strict launch procedures. Nuclear weapons are primarily used for the ultimate deterrence of "mutual assured destruction," emphasizing "nuclear rationality."

But Israel is completely different. It is a "small superpower" lacking strategic depth, and a few missiles could cripple its core areas. This fragile geopolitical environment has shaped its extremely insecure national character. Therefore, when conventional warfare faces collapse, Israel's "patience" and "threshold" for using nuclear weapons will be much lower than those of China, Russia, and the U.S.

Israel's ambiguous nuclear policy has always been to neither confirm nor deny possession of nuclear weapons, thus avoiding international pressure and maintaining the uncertainty of deterrence.

But it absolutely does not allow hostile countries to possess nuclear weapons (such as destroying Iraq's nuclear reactor in 1981, and now attacking Iran).

When a country faces "absolute annihilation," Israel is highly likely to use nuclear weapons and take its enemies, even the entire region, down with it.

This "mutual destruction" option is not baseless. McGregor's warning is also based on painful historical experiences and harsh realistic pressures:

In the initial phase of the 1973 "Yom Kippur War," Israel was retreating continuously. Then-Prime Minister Golda Meir once approved the assembly of nuclear warheads, adopting a posture of mutual destruction, which eventually forced the United States to provide emergency aid.

It is reported that currently Iran uses weapons including hypersonic missiles, which may make Israel's proud air defense system struggle. If conventional military forces are destroyed, McGregor believes Israel may again activate the "Samson Option" (military冒险, mutual destruction), and even issue a "last ultimatum" to the U.S.: either intervene to stop the war, or we will use nuclear weapons.

McGregor's remarks reveal one of the most dangerous aspects of the current Middle East situation: a country possessing nuclear weapons is feeling desperate in a conventional war.

In his view, Israel has about 90 nuclear warheads and long-range missiles. Although the mainstream view holds that Israel is not yet at the point of national extinction, the probability of using nuclear weapons is "close to zero," but he is concerned about the subjective "sense of oppression" that may distort judgment.

McGregor believes that the Netanyahu government may use this "brinkmanship" to hold the U.S. hostage: either the U.S. military directly enters the battlefield to completely defeat Iran for Israel, or watch the Middle East turn into a nuclear wasteland. This mindset of tying the pursuit of regional "absolute hegemony" with nuclear weapons is the core reason he believes the situation may spiral out of control.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1858972265771148/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author himself.