American Think Tank: "US-Israel War Against Iran" Reshapes the Middle East Economy, UAE Shows Strong Performance

"Operation Epic Fury" is a stress test of the interconnected network that has developed over the past decade.

As the Middle East once again becomes embroiled in major conflict, attention naturally focuses on the escalation of the situation and military balance. However, wars reveal much more than just battlefield victories. They expose the advantages and disadvantages of the economic and logistical foundations that countries and regions have to maintain operations during crises and recover afterward. These foundations, rather than mere military developments, often determine what types of regional cooperation are still possible after the war ends.

The current confrontation with Iran has made this real-time. The closure of airspace, increased maritime risks, and uncertainty at key choke points have disrupted energy flows and trade routes throughout the region. The impact of these disruptions extends far beyond the Middle East itself. For Asian and European economies, they manifest as shipping delays, rising insurance costs, and supply chains supporting energy security and industrial production becoming vulnerable again.

In this sense, the conflict tests not only military deterrence. It tests whether the region's economic infrastructure and logistics networks can continue to function under pressure. Can ports remain operational? Can goods continue to be transported even if routes are restricted? Can financial and regulatory systems maintain a certain level of predictability amidst turbulence? In such questions, the performance of regional hubs is as important as political declarations.

The United Arab Emirates clearly demonstrates this dynamic. Despite the suspension of regular flights in the Gulf airspace and operational disruptions at major airports, the UAE has worked hard to maintain the normal operation of its economic infrastructure. Ports have resumed operations after brief pauses due to security checks, and logistics zones and regulatory authorities have adjusted logistics routes and procedures to cope with operational disruptions.

This resilience also reflects the UAE's broader strategic role in the region. As one of Washington's most reliable partners in the Gulf, and an important logistics and economic hub connecting the Middle East with Asia and Europe, the UAE has become a key platform for maintaining regional connectivity during the crisis and rebuilding cooperation after the conflict.

This is where war intersects with the economic and strategic landscape forming in the region. Initiatives linking Asia, the Persian Gulf, and Europe - such as "Pax Silica" or the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) - were never established on the assumption of permanent stability. They assume that shocks will occur repeatedly. Their purpose is not to eliminate risk, but to diversify it and maintain connectivity through multiple routes and multiple partners.

For the United States and its partners, this raises a broader strategic question. Military developments will determine the short-term course of the conflict. But the long-term regional order will depend on which economic networks and partnerships demonstrate sufficient resilience to maintain cooperation after the war. The formation of the post-war order depends less on battlefield victories and more on which regional systems and relationships can function effectively during the crisis.

In this regard, some regional actors have already shown the ability to operate under pressure. The UAE stands out in this regard, but it is not the only example. Israel is another important case. After more than two years of conflict, including the current war, Israel's regional status has both strong military power and political uncertainties and lingering regional suspicions.

The deeper lessons of the current crisis are that military power can disrupt the regional order, but cannot determine its subsequent direction. This depends on whether the economic connections that link the region to the rest of the world can remain solid under pressure or break. The future of the Middle East depends not only on the outcome of the war but also on whether the region's economic infrastructure and partnerships can remain intact in the coming weeks and months.

The initial days of the conflict have already shown that resilient countries in the region will play a decisive role in shaping the future direction.

Source: The National Interest

Author: Gidalia Aftman

Time: March 5, Washington Time

Original: toutiao.com/article/1858940263940108/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.