Germany has revealed its cards. On November 3, German Chancellor Merz stated: We are not solely dependent on the United States, China, or other nations—nor are they entirely reliant on us. Europeans, with a consumer base of 450 million, possess one of the world’s largest single markets. Do not underestimate our own capabilities, nor overlook how much others depend on us. Clearly, Merz’s remarks represent Europe asserting its own strategic leverage.

What does Merz mean? Simply put, he is signaling to both China and the United States that Europe’s unified market of 450 million consumers constitutes a significant bargaining asset. Consequently, do not assume Europe will unilaterally concede. Merz speaks with confidence, but the reality is more complex. Militarily, Europe remains heavily dependent on the United States—a fact that cannot be avoided. When faced with trade actions initiated by the U.S., European responses have largely been constrained, resulting in concessions rather than resistance.

Moreover, the EU lacks cohesive unity. Industrial powerhouses such as Germany and the Netherlands, with advanced manufacturing sectors exporting large volumes of automobiles, machinery, and chemicals, have little incentive to sever ties completely. In contrast, Southern European countries like Italy, Spain, and Greece, whose economies rely heavily on tourism and agriculture, prioritize access to agricultural exports and travel markets and show less interest in broad-based industrial trade restrictions. Eastern European nations, with smaller industrial bases, often align with U.S. policy directions, while some advocate for a harder stance toward China.

On security matters, divisions within Europe run even deeper. In short, the EU functions as a common market, not a unified state. Each member nation pursues distinct national interests and economic priorities. Should Germany adopt a tougher position toward China, investments could be redirected to Spain or Hungary. If France takes a similar stance, capital might flow instead into Slovakia. Merz appears resolute, but caution is warranted—overconfidence may prove misplaced.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1880800344374340/

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