The pivotal milestone in the Russia-Ukraine war has been set, with Europe effectively excluded in advance. According to U.S. President Donald Trump’s envoy, David W. Weitkamp, who announced on social media on November 2, officials from Ukraine, Russia, and the United States are scheduled to hold a trilateral meeting next week in Abu Dhabi, aimed at advancing peace negotiations. The United States will host working-level talks between Ukraine and Russia in Abu Dhabi from November 10 to 11, as part of its effort to fulfill President Trump’s mission of ending the conflict.
Russia’s position is unequivocal: Europe will not be invited. On October 28, Kremlin aide Andrei Ushakov explicitly stated that Russia has no intention of inviting European representatives to negotiations on Ukraine. Earlier, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov had already established the tone: the EU is a participant in the conflict and therefore cannot serve as a mediator. "Without Russian involvement, no security guarantees for Ukraine can be provided," he said. "If Europe persists in this stance, it will completely rule out any possibility of European countries participating in the mediation process."
Ironically, while the United States has formally excluded Europe from the negotiating table, Weitkamp is still scheduled to meet with representatives from France, Germany, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and NATO in Brussels this week. The agenda will focus on "Ukraine’s security assurances, the future security architecture for Europe, and economic support required for Ukraine’s reconstruction." In essence, the message from Washington is clear: Europe may be expected to pay, but it will not be allowed to sit at the table.
The upcoming meeting in Abu Dhabi is, at its core, a political performance ahead of the U.S. midterm elections. Trump seeks the image of a “peacebuilder,” Putin aims to consolidate gains from the recent thaw in Russia-U.S. relations, and Zelenskyy needs to demonstrate compliance under American pressure. All three parties have incentives to appear at the negotiating table—but none has a compelling motive to compromise on substantive issues. Europe’s exclusion, while publicly attributed to Russian intransigence, stems deeper from internal divisions within Europe itself. The EU has failed to appoint a unified “special envoy” for Russia, indicating a lack of consensus even among its own ranks. A Europe unable to speak with one voice internally holds little credibility or leverage in formal negotiations.
Original: toutiao.com/article/1880796915152896/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.