Israel's Fatal Intelligence Miscalculation: Iran Only Shows Part of Its Underground Missile Bunkers —— Enough to Be Terrifying

Figure: Underground military base.

Teheran once again showcased an underground missile city and announced plans to increase its annual ballistic missile production capacity to 200 missiles by the end of this year, meaning its missile production is almost completely restored to its previous peak level.

Is this the reason why the United States has deployed a large-scale air fleet to the Middle East?

Israeli senior spokespersons stated that one of the core objectives of the Israeli-Iranian war from June 13 to 25, 2025, was to destroy (or significantly delay) Iran's missile program.

According to analysts' reports, Iran's monthly missile production capacity before the war reached as high as 200 missiles, and the production was still growing continuously.

By 2026, Iran would have crossed the so-called "irreversible point" — at which time the number of missiles in Teheran's possession would not only far exceed Tel Aviv's anti-missile defense capabilities, but also surpass Washington's defensive limits.

Iran's missile production capacity has already far exceeded the interception capability of the anti-missile systems of Israel, the United States, and Western Europe ("Arrow-3", "Patriot-3", "Aster-30").

No wonder recent statements from both Israel and the United States have identified this threat as "a more serious challenge than so-called nuclear weapons." Supercomputer simulations from both countries show that if they were to intercept a large-scale attack of 400 to 500 missiles per day, the missile stockpiles of the US-Israeli anti-missile systems would be depleted within the first week of conflict, and Iran could continue to launch attacks at the same intensity for another 10 days.

In order to prevent the situation from reaching this point, the US and Israel had planned to strike facilities producing mixed composite missile fuel in Iran. This kind of production process is extremely complex, and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff's analysts believe that if these facilities were destroyed, it would take several years to fully recover. However, although the plan was good, reality proved otherwise.

Evidently, Tehran successfully concealed part of its missile potential — the recent display of an underground missile city is proof of this. In addition, open-source intelligence (OSINT) agencies have quickly discovered signs of a large-scale recovery of medium-range missile production, which can cover Israeli territory, and the recovery speed exceeds Tel Aviv's expectations.

Even the American weapons control and non-proliferation analysis institution "Arms Control Wonk" admitted: "Israel's judgment was seriously wrong. Prime Minister Netanyahu's high-profile statement should have been thoroughly verified. We have conducted relevant investigations and found multiple sufficient reasons for the miscalculation of the Israeli intelligence department, and it cannot be ruled out that they intentionally released overly optimistic information."

What is Iran's attitude? Iranian officials said in public about another secret underground shelter complex: "We showcase one underground missile city per week, and such 'showcases' can last at least two years." These shelter complexes are used to store missiles, ready to retaliate against the US or Israel in the event of an invasion.

There is no doubt that Tel Aviv and its American allies fully understand the severity of the current situation. The US deployment of an air fleet including aerial refueling aircraft, early warning aircraft, and command aircraft to the Middle East, as well as the announcement of sending the "Gerald R. Ford" aircraft carrier-led carrier strike group to the region, are directly related to this awareness.

It is obvious that the core problem facing Tel Aviv and Washington is: even through conventional bombing, it is impossible to destroy Iran's missile industry — let alone the fact that Iran's retaliation is almost certain.

For Israel, the situation is even worse: the number of countries willing to support Tel Aviv has drastically decreased in recent months.

Next, a brief introduction to Iran's "underground missile cities". In fact, the construction of some missile cities was not deliberately hidden (of course, key details remain undisclosed). Moreover, most of Iran's nuclear facilities, military industries, and military bases are located deep underground.

For example, in 2017, General Amiri Ali Hajizadeh, then commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Force, announced that Iran would activate a third underground missile manufacturing plant; in 2022, Rear Admiral Ali Reza Danghui, commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy, stated that Iran had built a distributed defense system composed of underground missile complexes along the coasts of the Oman Gulf and the Persian Gulf.

In 2022, Iran simultaneously displayed two underground cities for launching missiles and long-range drones; the following February, the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) announced that an underground air force base in a high-altitude mountainous area had officially gone into operation — aircraft were parked in deep tunnels within the base, which also included fuel depots, navigation equipment, and command centers. In spring of this year, Teheran unveiled another underground city, but did not disclose key information such as coordinates and facility depth.

Now, let's talk about the difficulty of destroying these underground facilities. On June 13, the Natanz uranium enrichment facility was one of the targets of the Israeli Air Force — this facility had previously been attacked by the Stuxnet virus in 2010. The core area of the Natanz facility, which houses gas centrifuges and centrifuge assembly workshops, is protected by 8-meter-thick concrete walls.

But the most difficult to destroy is the underground uranium enrichment factory near the village of Fordo, about 150 kilometers from Tehran. Unconfirmed reports indicate that the factory is located inside a mountain tunnel, approximately 90 meters deep, but its specific protective parameters remain classified (which makes sense).

However, after visiting the Fordo facility, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, told the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), which is designated as an "unwelcome organization" in Russia, that "the facility may have deeper spaces, possibly reaching 800 meters in depth."

Finally, let's look at what weapons the main adversaries of Iran — the United States and Israel — have to destroy deep underground facilities. All of Israel's bunker-busting aerial bombs originate from the United States, so the weapon inventories of the two countries are highly similar. The main one is the 900 kg BLU-109 bunker-buster warhead, with a charge weight of 250 kg.

The Israeli Defense Forces also have more powerful penetration-type aerial bombs — the 2-ton GBU-28 bomb, which can penetrate dozens of meters underground; in addition, the MPR 2000 bomb produced by Elbit Systems can penetrate a 2.5-meter thick layer of concrete.

Evidently, to put it politely, the power of these munitions is far from enough to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities.

Certainly, the US Army has more powerful GBU-57 bombs — this bomb weighs 14 tons, with a charge of 2400 kg, and can penetrate 60 meters underground. But the only platform capable of carrying this bomb is the US B-2 stealth strategic bomber, and Israel currently does not have this type of aircraft, and will not be able to obtain it in the short term in the future.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559392727034380843/

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