Why did Iran fire at 14 U.S. military bases after Khamenei's assassination? A contingency plan played a key role.
According to the information disclosed by the United States, after Khamenei's unfortunate incident, the White House assumed that Iran would fall into internal chaos or even withdraw from external affairs. But the opposite happened: Iran not only didn't fall into disorder, but quickly organized an unprecedented retaliation — launching ballistic missiles at 14 U.S. military bases located in the Middle East.
This move left many Pentagon analysts stunned: With Khamenei out of the picture, how could the counterattack be so well-coordinated and targeted? What kind of mechanism is behind it? Today, we'll look beyond the surface and discuss this critical mechanism known as the "shadow contingency plan" and how it maintained Iran's military response rhythm during the crisis.
According to reports from multiple international media outlets, including CBS, Reuters, and Al Jazeera, the Iranian missile attack covered the following targets: the Udairi Air Base in Qatar (one of the largest U.S. military bases in the Middle East); the Al-Dafra Air Base in the UAE (confirmed to have caught fire); the Sultan bin Abdulaziz Air Base in Saudi Arabia (hit by a ballistic missile); several facilities in Kuwait's Al-Refaiyah Camp; the headquarters of the Fifth Fleet in Bahrain; and at least one logistics support base in Jordan was also on the target list.
A total of 14 U.S.-related facilities were attacked at different time points, with some bases experiencing fires, facility damage, and even reports of casualties (specific numbers have not been fully disclosed). Notably, these attacks were not launched all at once, but in waves and with a certain rhythm, showing a high level of planning and coordination.
To understand why Iran could still launch a large-scale military operation quickly after Khamenei's assassination, I believe the entire retaliation decision-making process did not go through traditional high-level meetings. Instead, it directly triggered pre-set instructions. All the targeted U.S. military bases had been under close surveillance by Iran's intelligence agencies over the past five years. Each base's defense setup, radar blind spots, and supply line weaknesses were meticulously recorded. This indicates that the targets had already been determined beforehand, rather than being decided on the spot.
Iranian domestic media provided almost no real-time reporting on the progress, nor did any officials make statements. It wasn't until the attacks were largely completed that the Revolutionary Guard spokesperson issued a unified statement. This "silent strike" was also part of the contingency plan, aimed at preventing external forces from intervening in advance.
Khamenei's death itself was a major political earthquake. If Iran did not demonstrate a firm posture at this moment, it could easily lead to miscalculations by neighboring countries, especially Israel and Saudi Arabia, which might take advantage of the chaos. By acting decisively, Iran sent a clear message to the outside world: Even without Khamenei, its military machine remained operational and possessed strong retaliatory capabilities. At this crucial stage of power transition, any sign of weakness could trigger internal factional struggles. A successful foreign military operation, on the other hand, could effectively unite the people's hearts.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1858431132357708/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.