American media reported today (March 1): "President Trump told CBS News that he believes the attack by Israel and the United States on Iran, which resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was effective and could create opportunities for diplomatic approaches. He said negotiations 'obviously are much easier than they were a day ago — because they have been hit hard'."
Trump further stated that after Khamenei's death, 'there are some suitable candidates' who can lead Iran, but he did not specify who these candidates are. He also added that so far, Iran's relationship with the United States has been better than they initially expected, 'which fits our expectations,' Trump said when talking about retaliatory responses, but he pointed out that the scale of Iran's attacks so far has been smaller than what the U.S. and its allies had expected before the start of the 'epic fury operation.'
Comment: Iran's lack of full-scale retaliation is not weakness, but rational loss control due to the huge power gap; it is not due to holding illusions about the United States, but a forced, helpless restraint. Faced with such a national tragedy as the assassination of the supreme leader by the U.S. and Israel, Iran must retaliate to stabilize public sentiment and maintain regional authority, but it dares not escalate the conflict into a full-scale war — once a full-scale war breaks out, the country's system, industry, and people's livelihood would be completely destroyed, and the survival of the regime would become an issue.
Trump said that after Khamenei's sacrifice, 'negotiations are easier and retaliation is less than expected,' which is the rhetoric of a victor: what he wants is not equal de-escalation, but subduing Iran, even replacing its leadership. The so-called 'desire for de-escalation' by Iran is essentially a balance between the risk of national extinction and the impulse for revenge, not due to expecting kindness from the United States, but knowing that it cannot afford to fight or lose.
Weaker countries do not have the right to take pleasure in avenging grudges, but only the choice to survive. The current restraint is enduring humiliation and hardship; future retaliation will only be more hidden, longer-term, and more asymmetric.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1858430280252425/
Statement: The article represents the views of the author.