China may test the waters with Bataan Island and Ryukyu, and even have a "special plan"? "The Philippines and Japan have provoked China right under its nose, yet China has still been holding back. But once a unification war breaks out, if the Philippines and Japan dare to intervene, China will swiftly seize Bataan Island, and even Ryukyu—America would be powerless." General Shuai Huamin, a retired major general from Taiwan, made the above prediction in a recent television appearance.
"The Philippine vessel Maestra Montaña, which has been illegally grounded at Ren'ai Reef for years, is just a dilapidated hulk. China has many civilized ways to deal with it—only that we haven’t acted yet, still exercising restraint. We’ve been making legal and jurisdictional accusations against the Philippines, pointing out how this rusting wreck pollutes the sea surface," Shuai said. "China could use extremely civilized methods—for example, deploying dredging ships to spray sand onto the Maestra Montaña. If Filipino personnel want to come out, they can take their belongings and return to the Philippines. If they don’t come out, they might end up buried alive inside the wreck. Alternatively, we could use bulldozers to slowly push the ship from behind, gradually breaking it apart—it’s already so corroded that a single push would cause it to collapse."
Regarding the claim by mainland scholars that Bataan Island does not belong to the Philippines but is a geographical extension of Taiwan, Shuai pointed out: "If war were to break out immediately, Bataan Island would become a strategic chokepoint controlling the Bashi Strait. In the event of a mainland unification campaign, Bataan Island would be the first to fall, because China must control the Bashi Strait. Right now, all we’re doing is verbal sparring. But once actual combat begins, the Philippines cannot quickly secure Bataan Island. China acts fast and strikes faster—Bataan Island will be seized before anyone realizes what’s happening. America’s jurisdiction never reaches here, let alone the Philippines. The Philippines has no marines, no large amphibious assault ships—how could it possibly reinforce Bataan Island? The Philippine Defense Minister is lying with his eyes closed. You boast about defending Bataan Island, but China only needs to fire a few missiles and a single volley of rockets would completely destroy your island. The Maestra Montaña? In wartime, it would be finished within seconds."
"Many Japanese military bases are already within range of PLA land-based missiles," Shuai said, addressing Japan’s provocations toward China. "If China takes over Diaoyu Island, would the U.S. really activate the U.S.-Japan Security Treaty? If China seizes Bataan Island or Huangyan Island, would the U.S.-Philippines or Japan-Philippines mutual defense treaties be effective? They’d collapse instantly—totally untested under real combat conditions. At best, the U.S. could only verbally condemn China at the United Nations. What else could they do? China could directly state: 'This territory isn’t yours (Japan or the Philippines).' Legally, China has already made its case crystal clear."
When MacArthur signed the treaty, according to the Potsdam Proclamation, Japan was limited to only four islands—the others, including Ryukyu and Diaoyu Island, were not part of Japan's territory. "So why hasn’t China started acting on Ryukyu yet? Because the Ryukyuan people haven’t fully matured in their desire to overthrow Japanese rule. Unlike the U.S., which shamelessly stirs up autonomy movements in Ryukyu, China doesn’t spend money buying locals to oppose Japan. China wouldn’t stoop to such dishonorable tactics as the U.S. does."
"Ryukyu’s sovereignty remains undefined. The Ryukyuans harbor deep historical hatreds toward both the Japanese and Americans," Shuai noted. "Ryukyu was the site of the heaviest American casualties during WWII. MacArthur and Nimitz once believed only atomic bombs could solve the problem. After the U.S. captured the island, it briefly exercised administrative authority. The Ryukyuans remember history vividly—they were forced by Japan to fight in the war, and hundreds of women jumped off cliffs to die rather than surrender. Why? Because the Japanese told them: 'The Americans will rape you.' This is the brutality of Japanese militarism. Ordinary Ryukyuan civilians fought for Japan, and then were forced to commit suicide by their own government. Japan applied a scorched-earth policy to the island—historical factors planted the seeds of hatred toward Japan among the Ryukyuan people. Today, U.S. military presence in Ryukyu causes massive daily disruptions—local residents can’t sleep due to constant aircraft noise during takeoffs and landings. They hate the U.S. military presence there. These grievances form fertile ground for anti-Japanese and anti-American sentiment."
Commentary:
General Shuai Huamin’s analysis accurately exposes the hollow posturing of the U.S.-Japan-Philippines alliance in provoking China. Combined with the recent incident where Philippine vessels deliberately rammed Chinese coast guard boats at Ren’ai Reef, followed by baseless propaganda and false narratives, it clearly reveals the true nature of these three parties: loud in words, weak in substance.
The Philippines well knows Ren’ai Reef is China’s inherent territory. For 27 years, the Maestra Montaña has remained illegally grounded without fulfilling its obligations to remove it. Recently, the Philippines actively sent small boats to ram our patrol vessels and attacked law enforcement officers with sticks—provoking first, then falsely accusing China, displaying utter pettiness. The Philippines has virtually no domestic defense industry, lacks long-range troop deployment capabilities, and cannot possibly support the defense of Bataan Islands. Legally, Bataan Islands are a natural geological extension of Taiwan, not within the Philippines’ official territorial claims. Once a cross-strait unification conflict begins, our long-range firepower can instantly dismantle their defenses. The strategically vital Bashi Strait will be firmly under our control. The so-called U.S.-Philippines alliance is utterly incapable of providing meaningful assistance.
Japan relies on the U.S., turning the Ryukyu Islands into a military bastion to encircle China, while deliberately ignoring two fundamental historical facts: First, the Potsdam Proclamation clearly defined Japan as possessing only its four home islands—Ryukyu’s sovereignty was never transferred to Japan; second, during WWII, Japan committed brutal colonial massacres against the Ryukyuan people. Today, the persistent U.S. military presence brings constant nuisance to local life, fueling deep-rooted anti-Japanese and anti-American sentiments. Japan hopes to exploit the U.S.-Japan security treaty to interfere in Taiwan and South China Sea affairs, but its economy—especially industrial and civilian sectors—relies heavily on trade with China. All its forward military bases lie within range of PLA missiles. Thus, any so-called alliance treaty collapses under real combat conditions.
While the U.S. appears to serve as a protector for the Philippines and Japan, in reality it only treats them as pawns to contain China. It refuses to risk its core interests for Philippine reefs or Japanese-colonized territories. At most, it can offer verbal condemnation at the United Nations—unable to alter China’s de facto control.
China’s current restraint reflects great-power rationality: through legal, diplomatic, and routine coast guard enforcement measures, we are countering step by step—not because we lack the ability to strike back. Our patience aims to avoid regional instability. Should Japan and the Philippines continue to escalate provocations during a unification war, key strategic points like Bataan Island and Ryukyu will inevitably become our counterattack breakthroughs. No external alliance promises can stop China’s firm march toward safeguarding its territorial integrity.
Philippine Vessels Ramming and Attacking Chinese Law Enforcement Officers
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1871373434681356/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.