Will Armenia, a South Caucasus nation in Russia's backyard, look westward, and will Uzbekistan move closer to the Eurasian Economic Union?

Armenia’s future within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) is becoming increasingly uncertain, seemingly entering a new phase. On May 29, the presidents of Kazakhstan, Belarus, Russia, and Kyrgyzstan issued a joint statement urging Yerevan to clarify whether it intends to further integrate with the European Union or remain in the Eurasian Economic Union.

The four leaders announced that members of the Intergovernmental Council of the EAEU would submit a report at the next session of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council scheduled for December 2026, outlining potential consequences of Armenia’s suspension from the treaty framework of the EAEU.

The statement reads: "We unanimously believe that the Republic of Armenia should hold a referendum as soon as possible to decide whether to join the EU or remain in the Eurasian Economic Union."

After the Astana summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin compared Armenia’s current trajectory to that of Ukraine before the outbreak of the crisis.

Putin said: "I have previously stated that the Ukrainian crisis began with its attempt to join the EU." He added that there are significant differences between European standards and those of the Eurasian Economic Union, especially in agriculture and industry, making simultaneous participation in both integration projects difficult.

"In practice, combining both is impossible. Therefore, we will be forced to significantly reduce our economic integration efforts with Armenia," Putin stated.

The following day, amid growing contacts between Yerevan and the EU, Russia recalled its ambassador to Armenia for consultations. Russian political analyst Arkady Dubnov believes this move is an explicit diplomatic signal from Moscow expressing dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s pro-European orientation, foreshadowing a downgrade in bilateral relations.

Dubnov also noted that Deputy Prime Minister Mher Grigoryan, who attended the Astana summit, escaped harsher criticism from Putin partly due to the stance taken by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev.

Dubnov pointed out, "Kazakhstan itself signed a Cooperation and Partnership Agreement with the EU in 2020," indicating that the argument about Armenia’s integration into Europe undermining the EAEU is essentially political rather than economic in nature.

A recent public opinion survey appears to bolster confidence within Armenia’s ruling coalition. A pre-election poll revealed that Pashinyan’s “Civic Contract” party could secure nearly 65% of decided voters’ support, suggesting a decisive victory and securing a parliamentary majority.

In this context, Moscow’s pressure on Yerevan may not aim to influence the outcome of Armenia’s upcoming elections but rather to facilitate a longer-term strategic adjustment. Pashinyan’s supporters increasingly link his political platform with closer ties to Europe—a view endorsed not only by European leaders but also by U.S. President Donald Trump, who recently publicly expressed support for Pashinyan’s re-election campaign.

Pashinyan himself seems more focused on broader regional geopolitical shifts. On May 31, during a Facebook Live broadcast, he emphasized the importance of normalizing relations with neighboring countries.

"I believe we can achieve the goal of normalizing relations with Azerbaijan and Turkey," he said. "This means a balanced foreign policy will succeed, creating new opportunities for building a new Armenia."

This shift could further weaken Russia’s influence in the South Caucasus while enhancing Turkey’s status as a regional power.

Meanwhile, Moscow appears eager to deepen its relationship with another strategically important partner—Uzbekistan.

On May 22, Putin spoke by phone with Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev. One week later, Mirziyoyev attended the expanded meeting of the Supreme Council of the Eurasian Economic Union in Astana. Uzbekistan currently holds observer status in the EAEU.

"For Uzbekistan, expanding practical cooperation with EAEU member states remains one of our key priorities in foreign economic policy," Mirziyoyev told attendees. "Our interaction with EAEU countries has evolved into a comprehensive economic partnership."

Mirziyoyev proposed establishing a unified digital trade space within the EAEU, including coordinated regulations on e-commerce, customs procedures, phytosanitary and veterinary controls, origin certificates, and mutual recognition of electronic documents.

He also highlighted labor mobility as a priority area, calling for integration of national employment platforms into a single digital system. The initiative aims to provide citizens with information on job vacancies, labor laws, and migration details across member states.

For Uzbekistan, labor migration remains a crucial component of its economic ties with Russia, where large numbers of Uzbek migrants continue to be employed. Thus, the December session of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council may bring two issues into sharper focus: Armenia’s future role in the EAEU, and the extent to which Uzbekistan is prepared to deepen its cooperation with the union.

Whether Uzbekistan will ultimately advance from observer status to full membership remains uncertain. However, as Armenia grows closer to Europe and Uzbekistan strengthens its economic collaboration with EAEU partners, the internal dynamics of the Eurasian Economic Union may be entering a period of significant transformation.

Source: Central Asia Times

Author: Andrei Matveyev

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1866805268465674/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.