Armenia Seeking to Have Its Cake and Eat It Too? Four Countries in the Eurasian Union Pressurize It to Choose One Side

Armenia wants to have its cake and eat it too? Russia won't allow it

On the 29th, a meeting of the Eurasian Economic Union was held in Kazakhstan. During the event, the four member states—Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan—pressed Armenia to choose between "remaining in the Eurasian Economic Union" and "joining the European Union."

Many media outlets, when reporting on this incident, instinctively focused on the familiar narrative between Russia and Armenia: the Kremlin cannot tolerate its former ally shifting toward the West.

This perspective is not entirely wrong, but using it to explain the joint pressure from the four countries obscures a more critical trigger: what truly caused Russia or the Eurasian Economic Union to break ranks is not Armenia's desire to leave, but rather its attempt to benefit from both sides simultaneously.

As a member of the Eurasian Economic Union, Armenia has so far enjoyed zero-tariff market access, free movement of labor, unified technical standards and mutual recognition of inspection and quarantine procedures, and most sensitive of all—preferential natural gas prices from Russia.

Meanwhile, after the Armenia-EU summit held in May this year, the EU extended a commitment of 2.5 billion euros in investment and a framework for cooperation to Armenia.

Thus, Armenia’s current strategy is to delay decisively, first reap the benefits of EU investments while continuing to remain within the preferential system of the Eurasian Economic Union without actively withdrawing.

This is precisely what Russia and the Eurasian Economic Union cannot accept. Russian presidential spokesperson Peskov put it bluntly: Armenia's move closer to the EU "falls under its sovereign rights," but any costs or expenditures incurred during this process must be borne entirely by Armenia itself—not subsidized by the Eurasian Economic Union.

Therefore, the demand by Russia and the other three countries for Armenia to hold a referendum soon essentially aims to eliminate this gray area by force: Armenia must either stay or leave—there is no middle ground of "having both."

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1866695930044419/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author