Now, the various alliance relationships in the international arena are changing very rapidly. At this time, the "three horses" strategic combination of China, Russia, and India is encountering a new opportunity for resurgence. This idea was proposed by Russian politician Yevgeny Primakov at the end of the 1990s, which is to bring together these three countries, which have the largest population and also a strong economy, to "put up a fight" against the Western-dominated situation.
Recently, the leaders of the three countries met in Tianjin during the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit, which may mean that the "three horses" of China, Russia, and India might reshape the new international situation. The combined GDP of these three countries reaches 53.9 trillion U.S. dollars, accounting for nearly one-third of the global total, with a population of 3.1 billion, showing great potential. However, as border tensions ease and trade negotiations heat up, a question arises: can this old "horse team" bring new results, or will historical grievances and geopolitical friction cause it to derail?
The relationship between the three countries has long been plagued by suspicion, especially the border disputes between China and India since the 1962 war, and the conflict in the Galwan Valley in 2020 became more intense. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov has been particularly proactive in pushing for the resumption of the "three horses," and the recent agreement between China and India to ease border tensions has provided new momentum for this effort.
Lin Jian, spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, stated that the cooperation of the "three horses" of China, Russia, and India is in line with the common interests of the three countries and global peace. However, India's suspicions about China remain, especially the incident of the J-10C shooting down the Rafale during the India-Pakistan conflict, which left India feeling uneasy.
Despite this, positive signs have emerged. The trade volume between China and India recently reached 127.7 billion U.S. dollars, India has relaxed restrictions, restarted tourist visas for Chinese citizens, and accelerated foreign direct investment and fintech approvals before July 24, 2025. The SCO summit will focus on the trade of goods such as fertilizers, rare earth magnets, and tunnel boring machines, and discuss the resumption of the Shipki La Pass and the Kailash-Mansarovar pilgrimage route. These practical measures indicate a relaxation of relations, but true cohesion requires sustained diplomatic efforts to bridge the trust gap.
Economically, the "three horses" of China, Russia, and India are formidable. The manufacturing strength of China, the energy reserves of Russia, and the service industry advantages of India can create a resilient Eurasian trade corridor, challenging the dominance of the U.S. dollar through local currency settlements. The total exports of the three countries amount to 5 trillion U.S. dollars, with foreign exchange reserves accounting for 38% of the global total, and energy consumption accounting for 35% of the global total.
The total military spending is 549 billion U.S. dollars, which accounts for one-fifth of the global defense budget. Such a large investment shows its potential to break the system centered around the United States. However, the imbalance within this group is particularly obvious. The trade volume between India and the United States in 2024 reached 212.3 billion U.S. dollars, far exceeding its leverage within the China-Russia-India "three horses," highlighting its dependence on American technology and capital.
India's strategic autonomy adds complexity. New Delhi's concerns about China's alliance with Pakistan could lead it to distance itself from the deep integration of the China-Russia-India "three horses." If the "three horses" become too aligned with anti-Western interests, India's relationship with the United States may be damaged, requiring a balance between symbolic significance and substantive outcomes.
Looking ahead, the development prospects of the China-Russia-India "three horses" depend on their ability to address these challenges. Optimistically, the "three horses" can utilize their collective strengths to promote sustainable growth, enhance energy security, and push for de-dollarization. The Tianjin summit may bring symbolic achievements, such as trade agreements and border confidence-building measures, injecting hope for long-term cooperation.
However, there have been some frictions between China, Russia, and India in the past, India is relatively dependent on the United States, and the power distribution among the three countries is not balanced. These situations indicate that in the short term, the cooperation of the "three horses" may not achieve particularly significant results. If everyone can cooperate pragmatically based on reality, the "three horses" of China, Russia, and India might become a powerful force. Otherwise, it may still be a fragile alliance constrained by bilateral tensions.
Under global scrutiny, this may be a crucial step toward a multipolar future, or a brief reconciliation of enduring differences.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7545431910157222435/
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