【By Observer News, Qi Qian】In May this year, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that the time has come to resume the China-Russia-India trilateral mechanism. Recently, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded to the topic, stating that China-Russia-India cooperation not only benefits the three countries themselves but also contributes to regional and global peace, security, stability, and progress. China is willing to maintain communication with Russia and India on advancing China-Russia-India cooperation.
"The 'China-Russia-India Three Horsemen' are about to restart?" On July 24, Pakistani scholar and Ph.D. student at the University of Bonn in Germany, Muhammad Murad, published an opinion article stating that there are signs indicating that as Sino-Indian relations have recently eased, Russia seems eager to restart this mechanism.
Murad analyzed that Trump's tariff policies have simultaneously harmed China and India's economic and political interests, which could potentially push for the resumption of the China-Russia-India trilateral mechanism. The article states that the joint efforts of China, Russia, and India could form a balance against Western-dominated Eurasian power.
Pakistani Scholar: Trump Pushes for Resumption of the China-Russia-India Trilateral Mechanism
It is introduced that the concept of the China-Russia-India trilateral mechanism was first proposed in the 1990s and was officially established in 2002.
Lavrov pointed out that since the mechanism was launched, more than 20 ministerial-level meetings have been held, not limited to foreign policy officials, but also including officials from the economic, trade, and financial sectors of the three countries. In November 2021, the foreign ministers of the three countries held a video conference. After that, due to the pandemic and the Sino-Indian border conflict, the mechanism fell into a standstill.
Murad said that from Russia's recent statements, as Sino-Indian relations have recently eased, Russia seems eager to restart this trilateral mechanism. Following Lavrov, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Rudenko said last week that Russia is negotiating with China and India to restore the trilateral cooperation mechanism. He pointed out that Russia maintains a positive attitude towards promoting the operation of this mechanism.
Lavrov and Indian Foreign Minister Sujan Singh, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
The article points out that given the regional competition between China and India, Russia believes India is being lured by the West, and reviving the trilateral mechanism and increasing direct contact between the three countries will alleviate this concern.
Regarding this issue, Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randil Jaiswal recently responded, stating that this coordination mechanism is a platform for the three countries to discuss global and regional issues, and pointed out that specific arrangements for the mechanism's meetings will be negotiated by the three countries in a mutually convenient way, and will be announced appropriately. Indian media reported that no agreement has been reached on the tripartite meeting yet, nor have discussions been held on arranging such a meeting.
Murad stated that although India's attitude is somewhat ambiguous, with the slow but stable normalization of Sino-Indian relations, the possibility of resuming the China-Russia-India mechanism is increasing. First, Russia, facing sanctions from the US and the West due to the Ukraine conflict, is eager to resume this mechanism; the strategic relationship between Russia and China and India may play an important role in resuming this mechanism, and Russia hopes to successfully facilitate trilateral dialogue; while the tariff policy of U.S. President Trump may be the most important factor in pushing for the resumption of the mechanism.
The article mentions that after Trump returned to the White House, he resumed the tariff policy. His protectionist ideology does not align with India's interests, and ongoing tariff uncertainties may harm India's economic and political interests. During the 2019 China-Russia-India leaders' meeting, Indian Foreign Secretary Gu Kaijie stated that the three leaders unanimously believed that maintaining the trend of globalization, trade liberalization, openness, and a rules-based trade system was crucial.
"Although the current situation is not entirely the same as in 2019, Trump's trade strategy remains unchanged, which may drive the resumption of the trilateral mechanism," the article wrote.
Murad also said that the alliance of China, India, and Russia could form a balance against Western-dominated Eurasian power.
He pointed out that China, India, and Russia are members of organizations such as the BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. These organizations are seen as efforts to counter Western influence, and the resumption of the trilateral mechanism would undoubtedly help promote the formation of a multipolar world, weakening the Western dominant position.
"Trump's moves have accelerated the 'dragon and elephant dance'"
Notably, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on July 16 during a meeting with U.S. senators in Washington that if India, Brazil, and China do not pressure Russia "seriously" engage in peace talks with Ukraine, the U.S. might impose secondary sanctions as a "punishment."
The next day (July 17), the Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson made a firm response, warning Stoltenberg not to "double standards" on this issue. Indian officials have long accused the West of "double standards": continuing to purchase fossil fuels from Russia while demanding other countries cut energy trade relations with Russia.
"Let me reiterate that ensuring our people's energy needs is undoubtedly our top priority," the spokesperson said, "in this process, we will be guided by market supply and the current global situation. We especially need to be vigilant about any double standards that may appear on this issue."
According to Indian media reports, when Jaiswal answered questions from reporters on that day, he also implied that India is not ruling out the possibility of restarting the trilateral cooperation mechanism with China and Russia. "This is a platform for the three countries to discuss issues of mutual interest," he said, "as for when the specific meetings of the China-Russia-India trilateral cooperation mechanism will take place, it will be determined jointly by the three countries, and we will inform the public appropriately."
July 14, Trump met with Rutte at the White House, Visual China
"Has Trump accelerated the 'dragon and elephant dance'?" On the 19th, American columnist Malcolm Scott wrote an article with this title and gave a positive answer. The article stated that China and India's cooperation faces many obstacles such as border conflicts and economic competition. But now, under Trump's tariff threat and the threat of "secondary sanctions," the music of the "dragon and elephant dance" has already begun, and China and India are working to deepen their cooperation.
"Indeed, the 'dragon and elephant dance' faces many obstacles, but now the music has already started," the article wrote, "if one person must be thanked for accelerating this situation, it is Donald Trump."
Recently, exchanges between China and India have gradually warmed up. Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh led an Indian high-level delegation to visit China last month to attend the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Ministers of Defense Meeting held in Qingdao, Shandong. Indian media believe that although China and India still have differences, more frequent high-level contacts indicate that the two countries are seeking to stabilize their relationship.
On July 14, Indian Foreign Minister Sujan Singh arrived in Beijing, making his first visit to China in five years. Sujan Singh in Beijing stated that it is very important for India and China to exchange views and opinions, and that the continuous normalization of bilateral relations can produce "mutually beneficial results."
Recently, there were reports that India's top think tank, the National Institute for Transforming India (NITI Aayog), had proposed relaxing additional review rules for Chinese investments, stating that these rules caused delays in some major transactions.
Regarding Sino-Indian relations, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mao Ning, previously stated that as the two largest developing countries, the common task of both sides is to strive for the development and revitalization of their respective countries. They should understand, support, and achieve each other, which is in line with the fundamental interests of the 2.8 billion people of the two countries, meets the shared expectations of regional countries, and follows the historical trend of the Global South's growing strength, which is beneficial to world peace, stability, and development and prosperity.
Mao Ning said that being partners who achieve each other's success and realizing the "dragon and elephant dance" is the only correct choice for China and India. China is willing to work with India to thoroughly implement the important consensus of the two country leaders, and to promote exchanges and cooperation in all fields and at all levels, and to advance the healthy and stable development of Sino-Indian relations, taking this year's 75th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and India as an opportunity.
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