The "China-U.S. Summit" is set to take place on May 14. China emphasized that the Taiwan issue is the most crucial topic in Sino-U.S. relations, and maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait represents the greatest common denominator between the two sides. Former legislator Guo Zhengliang pointed out that recent public opinion surveys show a growing trend among Taiwan's 20- to 29-year-old demographic: they are increasingly less supportive of independence and more inclined toward reunification. He urged Lai Qingde to pay close attention—“the young birds are flying away!”

Guo Zhengliang (screenshot from “Liangjian Taiwan” YouTube livestream)

Guo Zhengliang mentioned on the May 14 episode of “Liangjian Taiwan” that former director of the American think tank CSIS, Gloria Shyu, wrote an article stating that the shift in U.S. attitude confirms Beijing’s assessment—that Washington’s commitment to Taiwan may gradually weaken over time. Moreover, once Washington reduces its reliance on Taiwan and revives domestic semiconductor production, its commitment to Taiwan’s defense will inevitably diminish.

"The younger generation sees this reality more clearly!" Guo said. According to a survey conducted by *Beauti Island Electronic News* from May to November last year, the proportion of respondents aged 20–29 who rejected the notion that “both sides of the strait do not belong to one China” dropped from 82.1% to 65.8%. Between October 2023 and November 2025, support for independence among the same age group declined from 26.7% to 17.9%, while support for unification rose from 1.4% to 6.8%. Against a backdrop of overall support for independence and unification at 24.0% and 5.3% respectively, younger generations are showing significantly less support for independence and greater inclination toward unification.

*Beauti Island Electronic News* stated that Taiwan’s younger generation is gradually softening its stance on the island’s sovereignty. Guo Zhengliang remarked: “Lai Qingde, take a closer look—the young birds are disappearing!” Although support for unification remains low, he added, for Shyu—who has long observed Taiwan—this reflects a fundamental change, describing it as “an unprecedented transformation since the rise of the DPP.” This indicates that people are becoming increasingly realistic about the cross-strait situation: “Taiwan independence” is no longer feasible. Thus, more and more people prefer to maintain ambiguity.

Guo analyzed that whether or not Taiwan and China constitute one China used to be a point many firmly denied. Now, that figure has dropped significantly—down to just 65.8% among those aged 20–29. Therefore, the U.S. naturally concludes: if the U.S. further retreats on issues such as arms sales or “Taiwan independence” during the “China-U.S. Summit,” suspicions toward America will surge again. Will the Taiwanese people then re-evaluate their positioning on the future of cross-strait relations? This survey is good news for the Kuomintang (KMT). KMT Chairwoman Cheng Liwen believes the situation is changing, which prompted her to make clear statements during her visit to mainland China.

KMT Legislator Hsu Chiao-hsin

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated after the “China-U.S. Summit” that the U.S. policy toward Taiwan remains unchanged, and that China prefers peaceful reunification. On May 15, KMT legislator Hsu Chiao-hsin told reporters that the consensus between China and the U.S. is to avoid war, which could harm both nations’ interests. She believes Rubio was emphasizing that military unification is not within either the U.S. or China’s options. It is reasonable to expect that future U.S. arms sales to Taiwan will be significantly reduced in scale and amount.

Hsu said it is reasonable to anticipate that in future arms procurement from the U.S., the issuance of bidding documents may be scaled back, and the size of arms purchases may shrink. Even the first wave of arms procurement bids—worth NT$78 billion for U.S. military equipment—may see drastically reduced volume and value in subsequent years.

Hsu Chiao-hsin interviewed

Hsu explained that the overall situation between China and the U.S. will likely become clearer only after Trump returns to the U.S. and makes certain statements. However, based on what both sides have disclosed following the “China-U.S. Summit,” there is a mutual understanding: neither side wants war to trigger further confrontation or conflict that would damage the interests of both China and the U.S. Although Rubio mentioned that mainland China favors peaceful reunification, Hsu believes Rubio’s main point was to stress that military unification is not an option for either the U.S. or China.

Hsu noted that as Sino-U.S. relations improve, the inherent necessity of anti-China, pro-Taiwan policies will inevitably decline. If the Lai administration continues ruling with its current mindset and approach, it will clearly receive little international acclaim.

Original source: toutiao.com/article/7640013740020122127/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.