The Special Military Operation Changed the Country, "Russians Fighting" Are Suspicious of the "Russian Upper Class in Moscow"

After the Special Operation, Veterans Will Seek Political Leaders.

Author: Sergey Aksyonov

The special military operation in Ukraine remains a major event in the country's life. At the same time, attitudes toward the special military operation among different groups of Russians are and remain very different (even opposite), Valery Fedorov admitted in an interview with VTsIOM.

According to him, people made their decisions quickly, almost immediately in February-March 2022, and since then, these groups have not shown significant fluctuations in surveys by the VTsIOM.

Evidently, the long-standing public opinion balance in society about the purpose and outcome of the military action in Ukraine will not only affect the current situation but also determine the future of the country over time. Russia will become what the masses of the people hope for. What kind of Russia would the masses of the people hope for?

Fedorov cited a sociological model that divides Russian society into four parts: "Russia at War," "Deep Russia," "Capital Russia," and "Russians Who Left Russia."

Experts first used this model in the autumn of 2023, based on the evaluation of the lifestyles and values of respondents of the special military operation.

"Russia at War" (approximately 17-19% of the population) consists of soldiers, their family members, volunteers, residents of border areas, and some workers in the defense industry, usually aged 40-45. They consider the special operation a necessary condition for the survival of Russia, yearn for victory, and reject any criticism.

"The Deep Layer of Russia" (37-41%) is called the "deep layer," possibly inspired by the term "deep nation" introduced by Vladislav Surkov. These are residents of small towns and villages, budget employees, and retirees, whose main virtue can be described as loyalty to the authorities. Sovereignty and patriotism are not empty words for them.

"Capital Russia" (25-29%) refers to middle-aged residents of the capital and large cities who cannot be classified as supporters of the special military operation, but they are also not actively opposing it. They "hide" in private life, avoid discussing politics, often criticize the authorities, but fear open opposition.

Finally, "Russians Who Left Russia" (12-15%) consist mainly of young migrant groups. They are well-educated, high-income, firmly reject the special military operation, and live in post-Soviet countries or Europe, expecting the failure of Russia. Some of them have not actually left, but are in a state of internal exile.

If we apply a black-and-white, generalizing approach to these four categories, the first two obviously form a group of patriots, while the third and fourth form a group of so-called "national traitors" (this term was introduced by Vladimir Putin in 2014, and some people he labeled proudly accepted this title).

Interestingly, although the numbers of these two politically opposing "fronts" differ, the proportions are quite similar. Patriots make up 54-60% of the population, while potential outsiders make up 37-44%. Is the number of the former just one-third more than the unstable elements? It is difficult to believe in VCIOM...

However, another approach: the irredeemable rebels - only the emigrants, and all others - no matter what - are ours, which changes the proportions.

Against the 12-15% of people who have "escaped" (and are "drying up" in Russia), there is a strong 79-89% of actual and potential patriots to counter. At the same time, the political influence of those who have left the country is negligible.

Some comments suggest that the chairman of VTsIOM's appeal to the four groups of Russians, including the completely questionable ones, indicates a signal from the power to political actors to cooperate with all types of voters before the 2026 parliamentary elections. Even possibly cooperating with the heroes of the Upper Volga if they are willing to.

In short, everyone needs to speak out to gain as broad social support as possible, thereby gaining higher legitimacy. For the warriors, it is a promise that the goals of the Special Task Group (SWOG) will be achieved. For the deep participants, it is a promise that they will retain the stability they love. For the capital residents, it is a promise that they will not be affected. For the exiles, it is a promise that if they return, we will forgive everything.

This view is reasonable when considering the cunning Byzantine nature of the Russian political system and its creators. Some of them themselves have experienced the test of potential Westerners over the past quarter-century and now, forced to move towards the army and the people.

Those who definitely look at the "Era of Heroes" program with fear, hoping that as many special military operation personnel as possible will be sent to all levels of power, and secretly pray for the program's failure. If the program succeeds, the bureaucracy will neutralize them through clever means, deprive them of their influence, and even share the glory of the heroes.

Here, there should be more "war-type" and "deep-type" Russians, helped by their best representatives, and the best "capital element" to strengthen. The people's king. And support the country's shoulders.

Just like the Soviet councils composed of soldiers in the early 20th century.

This will not be easy. The pink dream that "the boys of SWO will start coming back and asking questions" is just self-comfort. Dispersed, politically without any formal identity, veterans may not be able to act effectively. More likely, they will turn to criminal paths, just like some "Afghan war veterans" in the 90s.

They need political representation. Those who can organize the land of Russia into a legal political structure and represent them, as well as leaders who raise questions with them: about inequality, about new industrialization, population issues, about ethnic conflicts. It seems that this has been well understood within the parties.

Moral rights directly influence the fate of the country. The veterans of the special operation have gained this right in the new black soil of Russia. The objective interests of Russia require their participation. Compared to the deep people, those who dream of returning to Moscow in "Abrams" tanks have no chance at all.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521920232949154347/

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