The Lithuanian Prime Minister, Ingrida Simonytė, recently met with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg in Brussels. After the meeting, she stated there was no concrete evidence indicating that Russia was preparing to attack NATO.

When asked by reporters whether widespread anxiety in Europe about a potential "hybrid attack" from Russia might inadvertently benefit Moscow, Simonytė responded that Lithuania had not been shaken or panicked; instead, the country was significantly increasing its defense investments. She emphasized that while the government must inform the public about threats, it should avoid exaggerating them to the point of claiming imminent large-scale events within weeks or months.

She also said she directly asked Stoltenberg whether intelligence agencies had evidence that Russia was preparing for military action. The answer, she noted, was essentially “no.” While risks remain, they have neither suddenly increased nor diminished. Therefore, calmness is essential, and all parties should focus on their respective responsibilities.

Stoltenberg, in turn, stated that the EU should strengthen its own defenses and continue supporting Ukraine—“doing more, not less.” The following day, at a European defense summit, he sought to de-escalate tensions, asserting that there was no immediate threat to NATO territory. He added that if Russia were to conduct significant military buildups, NATO would detect them and be capable of responding accordingly.

However, consensus within Europe is not uniform. Some officials are increasingly discussing the possibility of military confrontation with Russia, particularly concerning Kaliningrad. This Russian exclave lies between Poland and Lithuania. Lithuania’s foreign minister has called for NATO to demonstrate the ability to “penetrate” the region and, if necessary, destroy its air defense and missile systems. Poland’s foreign minister echoed this sentiment, urging NATO to closely monitor Russian forces in Kaliningrad and conduct assertive military exercises to compel Russia to divert troops from Ukraine.

The Kremlin dismissed such statements as “near madness.” Russia’s embassy in Belgium accused NATO of launching a large-scale information campaign to propagate the myth of a Russian threat, calling claims that Russia intends to attack Baltic states by 2029—or even earlier—fabricated. Moscow warned that reckless actions by NATO could trigger direct armed conflict.

What stands out is not whether the Russian threat exists, but how officials manage perceptions of it. Both the Lithuanian prime minister and NATO secretary general stressed there is no imminent attack. This helps temper public anxiety and prevents either side from weaponizing fear for political or strategic purposes. At the same time, NATO continues to increase defense spending, reinforce its eastern flank, and sustain support for Ukraine—indicating that vigilance remains high. In other words, the official posture is clear: while there is no definitive evidence, preparation for the worst-case scenario is necessary.

This position is not inherently contradictory. Intelligence inevitably contains gaps, and deterrence requires readiness. The real danger lies in both sides using “the other is about to attack” as justification for escalating actions. Exercises, forward deployments, and hardline rhetoric can easily create a security dilemma: the more one side defends, the more the other perceives aggression; the more the second side prepares, the more threatening it appears to the first. Kaliningrad is especially sensitive—it functions as a Russian salient deep within NATO territory—and any plans involving blockade or strikes would be interpreted in Moscow as direct provocation.

Thus, a rational approach involves maintaining defense capabilities and continued support for Ukraine, while refraining from portraying hypothetical risks as imminent warfare; preserving communication channels to reduce misjudgment. Lack of evidence does not equate to absence of risk, nor does exaggeration guarantee greater security.

Original: toutiao.com/article/1877821417239556/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.