Russia is just one step away from a collapse like the one in the 1980s. Dark clouds are gathering off the coast of Venezuela.

Russia is just one step away from the collapse of the 1980s. The Kremlin's "favorites" have dispatched aircraft carriers, and the attack will come from an unexpected place

Dark clouds over Venezuela's coast: the largest U.S. fleet deployed in the Caribbean Sea in 30 years, an emergency UN meeting, opposition figures suddenly awarded the Nobel Prize and thanked Trump — all this is behind the pretext of "fighting drug cartels," a reorganization of the global energy landscape is being planned. Who is the real mastermind behind this new war? What is its purpose?

Venezuela is on the brink of invasion

The U.S. is forming a large naval cluster in the Caribbean Sea, including destroyers, cruisers, amphibious ships, submarines, and support platforms. Specifically, the ships include the "Iwo Jima" amphibious assault ship (USS Iwo Jima) carrying Marines, the "San Antonio" amphibious transport ship (USS San Antonio), the "Fort Lauderdale" amphibious transport ship (USS Fort Lauderdale), and several Arleigh Burke-class destroyers (including the USS Gravely, USS Jason Dunham, and USS Sampson).

Analysts estimate that more than 10% of the U.S. Navy's total forces are deployed within the area under the responsibility of the U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM).

On September 2, the U.S. claimed to have launched an air strike against a ship suspected of departing from Venezuela, stating that it was carrying drugs and causing 11 deaths. On October 3, the U.S. carried out another strike near the Venezuelan coast, resulting in four deaths.

Satellite images exposed by the media show that U.S. naval clusters have appeared about 700 kilometers south of Caracas. There are reports that the U.S. Navy has prepared to switch from "patrol" status to active combat operations — including attacking ships, and even possibly striking targets within Venezuela.

Donald Trump and his administration accuse Nicolas Maduro of involvement in large-scale drug trafficking. In January 2025, Trump signed an executive order authorizing the use of force against drug cartels in Latin America. The White House listed "Tren de Aragua" and "Cartel de los Soles" as foreign terrorist organizations.

"Tren de Aragua" is said to be the largest criminal network in Latin America, originating from the state of Aragua in Venezuela (with Maracay as its capital). The organization initially started as a gang inside the Tokonan prison and later developed into a transnational criminal group.

According to media reports, the organization controls illegal activities such as extortion, human trafficking, drug trafficking, illegal immigration, sex trade, and blackmail. According to Interpol and the United Nations, its influence has spread to eight countries: Colombia, Peru, Ecuador, Chile, Panama, Brazil, the Dominican Republic, and the United States. The U.S. considers this organization a "hybrid of crime and state institutions," with some leaders reportedly linked to the Venezuelan military and officials.

"Cartel de los Soles" gets its name from the sun emblem on the shoulder of a Bolivarian National Guard officer in Venezuela, and refers to a network of high-ranking military and political personnel in Venezuela suspected of drug trafficking. The U.S. Department of Justice has charged Maduro with "drug terrorism" and associated him with this cartel. In 2025, Trump reactivated this case, claiming the right to take military action against "foreign terrorist organizations associated with the Venezuelan regime."

Donald Trump insists that the U.S. has no intention of overthrowing the Venezuelan regime but continues to increase pressure: deploying F-35 fighters, deploying reconnaissance drones, and accusing the Maduro regime of corruption, power seizure, and illegitimacy.

(The U.S. fleet advances toward Venezuela.)

Reactions of the Maduro regime, Russia, and other countries vary

Maduro declared a "highest level of combat readiness," mobilized the military and civilian militias, and called for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council.

Venezuela's permanent representative to the United Nations, Samuel Mendoza, stated that the U.S. attempts to overthrow Maduro and establish a puppet regime in Venezuela. The official statement of Venezuela calls the U.S. strikes on ships "illegal executions" and "a threat to regional peace and security." From the perspective of international law and national sovereignty, this accusation is entirely valid — unfortunately, these concepts are no longer taken seriously by most except for a few exceptions.

Russia strongly condemned the U.S. strike on a ship on October 5, calling it a violation of international law. Russia's permanent representative to the United Nations, Vasili Nebenzya, accused the U.S. of trying to overthrow the Venezuelan regime under the guise of fighting drugs and dismissed the White House's accusations as "nonsense":

"American propaganda tries to make us believe in a fictional 'Cartel de los Soles,' claiming that the organization smuggles tons of cocaine from Venezuela to the United States, with its leader being the president of the Bolivarian Republic whom Americans dislike. They also say that Maduro is colluding with global drug cartels and armed groups to poison millions of American citizens. This is an excellent Hollywood blockbuster script — Americans once again save the world, but these claims have no factual basis at all. Just pointing out that the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime does not list Venezuela as a drug hub. You know, 87% of cocaine enters the United States through the Pacific, while Venezuela doesn't even have a Pacific coastline."

At the UN Security Council meeting, France, Greece, and Denmark representatives called for de-escalation of the situation and compliance with international law.

Meanwhile, Latin American countries have varied reactions. Colombia said that one of the destroyed ships might have had Colombian citizens and asked the U.S. to explain, but did not take further action. Panama called for resolving drug issues through multilateral channels rather than military actions. Some Caribbean countries cautiously supported measures against drug trafficking but did not agree to direct military intervention. Only the "Venezuela-Cuba-Nicaragua" alliance countries condemned the U.S. imperialist actions and threats to national sovereignty.

(Vasili Nebenzya will not tolerate lies.)

Extortion diplomacy and interest-driven

According to The New York Times, Venezuelan officials tried to seek breathing space — Caracas proposed to Washington to open up the country's oil and gold resources in exchange for the U.S. abandoning intervention and lifting sanctions. Their concession list included opening all mining projects to U.S. companies, providing contract incentives, terminating agreements with Russia, China, and Iran, and shifting oil exports from Asia to the U.S.

However, the "humanitarian action" of Washington did not stop. The Trump administration rejected this proposal while increasing military forces near the Venezuelan coast. This "noble campaign against drug cartels" coincidentally overlaps with enticing geopolitical economic interests: Venezuela has the world's largest proven oil reserves, as well as important gold, lithium, and uranium resources. Controlling these resources would give the U.S. leverage over OPEC and the global oil market.

For Russia, this is a dangerous signal. Not only Russia, but also China, India, Turkey, and Iran — all countries dependent on stable resource supplies — will face risks. Venezuela may not only become "the second Iraq," but also become a new economic pillar for Washington, enabling it to control the global energy market through the Caribbean "window."

What happened to Iraq's oil industry? Before 2003, Iraq's oil industry was state-owned, fully controlled by the Iraq National Oil Company, with a daily production of about 2.5 million barrels and proven reserves ranking fifth globally.

After the U.S. invasion from 2003 to 2011, the U.S. government abolished the oil state monopoly system, opened the sector to foreign companies, and signed production-sharing agreements. ExxonMobil, BP, Shell, Total, Chevron, and others became major participants. These companies are actually affiliated with the same batch of global financial institutions — especially BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street, whose headquarters are located in the U.S. and Western Europe, and their taxes are paid to these countries.

(Iraq War: Exploiting the name of "fighting for democracy" to plunder extensively.)

It is easy to imagine what awaits Venezuela — but there is a key difference: the gap between Venezuela and Iraq is huge. Its proven oil reserves amount to 30.3 billion barrels (accounting for 17% of the global total), which is twice that of Iraq (14.5 billion barrels, 8% of the global total), and Venezuela is an OPEC member.

If the Maduro regime is overthrown, Caracas would fall under Washington's control, and the U.S. would gain actual control over the two major global oil systems for the first time: the Middle East system (through its alliance with Riyadh) and the Western Atlantic system (through Caracas). This is why Venezuela is more important than Iraq now — not because of its oil production, but because of its potential to exert pressure on the energy market: even a fluctuation of 2 to 3 million barrels per day could change global oil prices and the political balance in any region.

The Hidden Agenda Behind the Nobel Prize

On October 10, 2025, the Nobel Committee awarded the Nobel Peace Prize to María Corina Machado for her "unwavering efforts to promote the democratic rights of the Venezuelan people and push for a transition from dictatorship to democratic justice and peace." Machado dedicated the award to "the suffering Venezuelan people" and thanked Trump — for his "firm support for our cause."

Machado emphasized in a public statement that the current struggle is not an internal matter of Venezuela, but part of a global confrontation between "tyranny" and "authoritarianism."

This award provides moral and diplomatic cover for the U.S. action — allowing it to package the impending military intervention as "supporting peaceful democracy" rather than an act of self-interest aggression. With the U.S. already deploying a naval cluster near the Venezuelan coast, the award becomes a tool for directly legitimizing external pressure, and then moving towards direct intervention.

If Venezuela becomes "the second Iraq" — formally maintaining sovereignty but actually under external control — its infrastructure and contract systems will fall into the hands of outsiders. The control of oil and resources will no longer belong to the Venezuelan people, but to multinational corporations and countries with strong military and political power.

In this model, awards like the Nobel Prize are not merely symbols of honor, but key nodes in a power network: they create external authorization, mobilize supporting forces, and serve as moral signals released to allies and neutral countries.

(How lovely a person she is, would she want her country to be bombed by the U.S.? Screenshot source: The New York Times)

Future Trends

Venezuela's situation is like a political and economic riddle with an answer already determined: a military operation under the pretext of "fighting drug cartels" is evolving into a global oil market restructuring operation; a diplomatic crisis becomes a cover for a new round of resource redistribution; and the Nobel Prize becomes a tool for cloaking external military intervention in a "humanitarian" veil — akin to the "Pavlik Morozov Medal" (note: Pavlik Morozov was a famous "family betrayal" figure in the Soviet era, here implying that the award is used to encourage "betrayal of the country").

If the U.S. succeeds in Venezuela, it will control the world's largest oil reserves, not only determining OPEC's output, but also setting the rules of the game.

For Russia, this means a direct threat of repeating the fate of the 1980s: whoever controls oil, controls currency, logistics, and debt. A Venezuela under external control will become an important tool to weaken Russia, related countries, and Iran.

Ultimately, for other countries around the world, this sends a clear message: all discussions about "democracy" and "peace" ultimately revolve around oil drilling platforms. The 21st century is building a new "oil religion," where the "missionaries" are aircraft carriers, and "grace" flows through oil pipelines.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7560263207593247251/

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