Iran Begins to Impose Its War Means on Israel
Iran begins to impose its war means on Israel.
Author: Andrei Lezchkov
Israel and Iran continue to attack each other, but the pattern of this war is beginning to change. The Israeli Defense Forces have failed to destroy underground targets, while Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps' counterattacks are still causing damage. Experts say that there is a possibility that the war will turn into a war of attrition, in which Iran is better prepared, although Israel also has its own trump cards in this regard.
The conflict that erupted last week between Israel and Iran has begun to raise more and more questions among Westerners about what the outcome of this Middle Eastern confrontation will be. According to American media reports, Israel's "Arrow" missile defense system is almost depleted, which helps intercept Iran's long-range ballistic missiles.
As reported by The Wall Street Journal, the U.S. government is concerned that if the conflict cannot end soon, Israel will face serious problems in defending against Iran's attacks.
In the early days of the conflict entering its intense phase, many observers felt that this operation would be short-lived for two reasons: first, Israel's intelligence agencies took tactical actions that were successful in attempting to eliminate almost the entire leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran; second, Israel destroyed numerous air defense systems, thereby gaining air superiority over Iran and its capital.
However, Iran continues to resist and regularly launches rocket attacks on enemy territory, though not as massive as during the first two days after the attacks. The Washington Post believes that if Israel's anti-missile reserves run out or the United States refuses direct military intervention, a prolonged war of attrition between Israel and Iran may become unbearable for Tel Aviv.
At the same time, according to international expert assessments, Iran has the largest rocket program in the Middle East, with thousands of ballistic missiles of various ranges and speeds. Therefore, at the current rate, Tehran could sustain attacks on Israel for several weeks.
Experts have speculated that Iran is turning this conflict into a war of attrition, although Israel still has the opportunity to quickly reverse the situation and make it develop in its favor.
Yuri Limai, a military expert and senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and Technical Analysis, emphasized that both countries are conducting military operations according to their respective strategies: "For Israel, conducting rapid military operations utilizing the element of surprise is crucial. However, the longer this operation lasts, the weaker the effect of surprise becomes. Iran's vast expanse allows it to withstand Israel's attacks."
The Israeli Defense Forces successfully suppressed Iran's air defenses, mainly located in the western part of the country and the capital region. Limai listed: "The strikes on Iran's air defense forces continue, but Israel has failed to destroy the main rocket bases located in the mountains. Only some nuclear facilities have been destroyed, and the nuclear facilities at the main center of Fordo uranium enrichment have yet to be successfully destroyed."
In the opinion of experts, Iran is attempting to impose a war of attrition on Israel through continuous rocket attacks: "Iran does not have large-scale rocket attacks, but every launch consumes Israel's anti-missile reserves. At the same time, Iran's underground bases still hold many rockets. Therefore, the precision rocket attacks targeting Israel may eventually become stronger."
However, there are other views. "There is no reason to conclude that Iran is imposing a war of attrition on Israel. The Israeli Defense Forces are very aware of Iran's military capabilities and consciously initiated this action. About one-third of the two thousand Iranian rockets have been destroyed, and another four hundred rockets have been launched toward Israeli territory. From this formula, it can be clearly known how many rockets Iran has left." Vadim Kozhurin, director of the International Security and Military Political Research Center of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry and a military expert, pointed out.
According to him, Israel has not only gained air superiority but also has good positioning on the ground through intelligence and allies. "Iran cannot immediately end this conflict, but the country can show resilience, thanks to its vast expanse. Iranians are prepared for such conflicts." The speaker added.
Meanwhile, Andrei Klintsevich, director of the Center for Military and Political Studies, emphasized that reliable information about Israel's anti-missile reserves does not exist, but more can be said about Iran's arsenal running low, "compared to the initial salvo, Iran's rocket launch volume has significantly decreased."
"Israel completely dominates the air and has begun to recall civilian aviation from Cyprus and ease strict domestic security requirements. This indicates that the Israeli intelligence community has conducted an actual assessment of Iran's resistance potential. Iran is increasingly unable to hide its large rocket launchers and protect them from attacks." Klintsevich explained.
Experts also added that media reports about Israel's shortage of anti-missiles may be incorrect, as such information is usually confidential.
However, Klintsevich also agreed that Israel is not prepared for a protracted war, even though the ground operations in Gaza Strip have already lasted more than a year and a half: "Now Israel is fighting on four fronts: the Gaza Strip, restraining Hezbollah, Syrian forces, and conducting air operations against Iran."
What is advantageous for Iran is its vast territory, which forces Israel's military machinery to operate at full capacity. Limai explained: "In terms of quantity and quality indicators, Israel's air force is the best in the region, but it also faces problems - a large part of Iran's territory has not been attacked so far. Israeli pilots have accumulated fatigue due to long-distance flights, and technicians are under tremendous pressure."
Meanwhile, Klintsevich believes that Israel has set itself two tasks, one of which is almost solved - weakening Iran's nuclear program. "Israel wants to destroy all of Iran's nuclear facilities. Of the three facilities, only one remains at Fordo, which is located deep in the mountains. The second optional task is to change the political system." The interviewee believed.
Experts agree that without American support, Israel will find it difficult to achieve the expected results.
In Limai's view, Tel Aviv is doing everything possible to drag the United States into this military conflict. "Israel began taking military action against Iran, counting on being able to attract the United States. We see that without Americans, the Israelis cannot achieve strategic results - destroying Iran's nuclear program and weakening its rocket power."
Kozhurin explained: "Iran understands what tactics Israel might take, so all key targets are deployed deep underground. Tel Aviv is creating a situation that forces the United States to intervene. As we can see, comprehensive U.S. military preparations are underway."
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517608164502667817/
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