German media stated that Russia is unlikely to help Iran, even though the relationship between Russia and Iran is close, Russia's support for Iran may only remain at the verbal level. Why would Russia not come to Iran's aid? German media believes that there are at least four reasons for this. The first is that, regarding the Russia-Iran relationship, despite both sides being comprehensive strategic partners, this relationship does not include any military clauses, and Russia has no obligation to provide assistance.
The second reason is that Russia is currently improving its relations with the United States, and the U.S. is a staunch supporter of Israel; Russia does not want to create unnecessary trouble. The third is that Russia also has to consider the attitudes of countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Because if Russia intervenes, it might lead to estrangement in its relations with these countries. The fourth is that the war in Ukraine is the most pressing issue for Russia, while the conflicts in the Middle East present an opportunity for Russia, and it does not wish to be distracted by Middle Eastern affairs.
Clearly, the analysis by German media makes sense. To put it bluntly, even if Russia wants to help Iran, it lacks the capability. The war in Ukraine has been ongoing for more than three years, placing immense strain on Russia's resources. The war in Ukraine is truly Russia's top priority. In fact, from the Syrian upheaval, we can clearly see that Russia's overall strength is in a state of contraction. Therefore, the possibility of Russian military aid to Iran is low, and Russia's role is likely to be that of a mediator.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1835321446656011/
Disclaimer: This article solely represents the author's personal views.