Talk About Trump's Repeating Ukraine's Mistake in Iran

—— Calculations Behind Washington's Threats and Risks Faced by Tehran

Author: Dmitriy Rodionov

Photo: U.S. President Donald Trump

Commentary Guests:

  • Kamran Gazanov
  • Pavel Feldman

U.S. President Donald Trump, speaking aboard Air Force One on his return from Canada, said he not only hoped to mediate a ceasefire between Iran and Israel but also wanted Tehran to completely abandon nuclear weapons.

"I don't want to negotiate with Iran," he emphasized. "What I expect is its total surrender."

Trump also revealed that he might send Vice President Jay D. Vance or envoy Steve Whitaker to meet with Iranian representatives. "I may do this," he added. "It all depends on the situation when I return to Washington."

In addition, Trump expressed his hope to "end" Iran's nuclear program as soon as possible before the U.S. military is forced to intervene and believed that Israel has no intention of reducing its strikes against Iran.

"Iran should have signed the agreement I demanded. Now it is both disgraceful and a waste of lives. Iran must never possess nuclear weapons, and I have repeatedly emphasized this point," Trump wrote later on Truth Social.

He claimed he did not want to use the U.S. military to resolve the Iran issue but admitted that American patience was running out.

Shortly afterward, Trump demanded in his post that Tehran "unconditionally surrender," without specifically explaining what this term meant. He also claimed to know the exact location of Iran's Supreme Leader but stated that the U.S. had no intention of eliminating him "at least for now."

This already seems like another one of Trump's long-standing empty threats. But what exactly is he up to? Is he trying to scare people? This tactic has completely failed in Ukraine, so why does he think it will work in the Middle East?

"Don't take Trump's words too seriously," said Pavel Feldman, a political scientist and professor at the Department of Philosophy and Sociology of the Institute of Labor and Social Relations. "He is known for making empty promises and bluffing. His stance may change in a few days, and he might start talking about the nuclear deal with Iran again. Perhaps even the U.S. President himself hasn't fully realized that America has become embroiled in an extremely uncertain regional conflict."

If Tehran eventually survives the crisis, it will seek to settle accounts with Washington sooner or later, which will give new impetus to its nuclear program. Therefore, overthrowing the Ayatollah regime is the ideal solution for both Israel and the U.S., but this goal currently appears overly ambitious.

Question: Has Trump actually issued an ultimatum, and will Iran accept it? Besides, he didn't threaten war, and no one knows what his real threat is... What is Iran waiting for?

Answer: Israel has already staked its national survival in the current conflict, and Netanyahu has no way out. Although the Israeli Defense Forces have gained air superiority over Iran, converting this advantage into regime change is extremely difficult. For example, Israel can strike any target in Gaza but cannot overthrow Hamas. Perhaps the U.S. will attempt to stir up internal unrest in Iran based on its experience in organizing "color revolutions" — Elon Musk launched the "Starlink" network in the region for this purpose. However, the Iranian opposition is well aware of the risks and has not rushed to protest on the streets.

Question: Clearly, Iran will not accept the ultimatum. Is there no room for compromise?

Answer: It seems unlikely that this matter can end with a win-win compromise. Both sides lack trust, and the situation continues to escalate. Trump's position on Iran remains unclear, and he may be deliberately making contradictory statements to cover his true intentions.

He is likely waiting for Israel to complete its most difficult military operations, after which the U.S. could join the bombing of Iran's nuclear, military, and energy infrastructure with minimal risk.

Question: Why is Trump so confident he can bring down Tehran? He has already miscalculated in Ukraine, and even Zelenskyy dares to defy him...

Answer: Not long ago, Trump still believed he could incorporate Canada and Greenland into the U.S., but what happened? Today he claims he will definitely defeat the Ayatollah regime, but tomorrow he might say he never aimed for this, and the media misunderstood him. A month ago, he threatened to destroy the Houthi rebels in Yemen, but later signed an embarrassing ceasefire agreement. Israel cannot fully rely on the U.S. in the war against Iran — the U.S. has betrayed its allies many times, leaving them to face common enemies alone.

"When Israel initially launched the war, I thought Trump's goal was to force Iran to abandon any nuclear program — whether civilian or military, ultimately ensuring Iran has no nuclear program at all," said Kamran Gazanov, a Ph.D. in Political Science from the University of Salzburg, a senior lecturer in the Department of Journalism Theory and History of the Russian People's Friendship University, and an expert at the Russian Strategic Institute.

"Israel and the U.S.' overall interests lie in pressuring Iran, but if Trump wants to pressure and reach a denuclearization agreement, Israel aims to completely destroy the Iranian regime — not only eliminating nuclear potential and ballistic missile potential but also overthrowing the regime, ensuring Iran no longer poses a threat."

"However, during the conflict, Trump may realize that Israel holds an advantage, and Iran has suffered significant losses in terms of military power, launch platforms, and reactors. Therefore, he thinks, why bother negotiating if he can overthrow the current regime and impose conditions on a weaker one? The U.S. is already doing this."

"In fact, Trump has openly stated that he wants to overthrow the current regime. Those 'we are ready to negotiate' supplementary remarks are just options — succeed and negotiate, fail and forget. But the U.S. seems increasingly convinced that the Iranian regime is on the verge of collapse and will crumble like a house of cards soon."

Question: How might things develop next?

Answer: I think there are two possibilities: either Trump waits for Israel to "eliminate" its opponent (Iran) and reaps the benefits; or the U.S. gets directly involved — they have already dispatched a carrier strike group.

In the former case, the U.S. may play the role of an accomplice, preventing Iran from retaliating against Israel while letting Iran weaken itself. Data shows that Iran's counterattack intensity is weakening day by day.

Question: How will they try to overthrow the Iranian regime?

Answer: I believe the means of regime change might involve launching a large-scale attack on Iran's military potential, creating technical disasters, eliminating political leaders, causing chaos and instability; utilizing technical disasters to trigger refugee waves, and inciting unrest among ethnic groups such as Kurds and Balochs.

Or forcing Iran to surrender — once it surrenders, the regime will collapse on its own because Iran has long relied on propaganda about "we have withstood and defeated Saddam Hussein, we have withstood and defeated the U.S." to rally public support. If it gives up its nuclear program, it will be seen as defeat, triggering a "peaceful creeping revolution"...

Original Article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517510625359249931/

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