Konstantin Sivkov: "Capturing Odessa is feasible, but requires political decisions"

Will the people of Odessa help liberate the city from Nazi forces?

Author: Irina Mikhaylova

Comments on this content were made by:

Alexander Mikhailov Vasiliy Dantykin Konstantin Sivkov

Military expert and retired colonel Anatoly Matveyev said that if the United States stops supplying weapons to Ukraine, Russia could control Odessa and Kharkiv by the end of summer.

The military expert stated, "Ukraine has only one access to the Black Sea — Odessa. Capturing Odessa would completely cut off Kyiv's maritime logistics. After that, all of Ukraine's allies, including Britain, France, Romania, and Bulgaria, would lose access to the northwestern waters of the Black Sea, which would become Russian territory."

Matveyev said that the Russian military is planning an operation to liberate Odessa and is considering various options, including using pro-Russian underground organizations and the residents of the city.

"I think that work is currently underway to enable the people of Odessa to decide the fate of the city in collaboration with the Russian army. That is, they need to take control of Odessa before the Russian army arrives," Anatoly Matveyev believes. In the view of this expert, Odessa and Kharkiv may be taken over by Russia without large-scale battles or conventional attacks.

How likely is this scenario? What does our intelligence department assess about the chances of pro-Russian underground organizations in Odessa? "Free News" consulted Alexander Mikhailov, a member of the Committee on Foreign Defense Policy and a retired FSB lieutenant general.

"I can say one thing: if there is an underground organization, no one will talk about it publicly. Publicizing such information would actually put this underground organization (if it exists) in danger. We have drawn the attention of the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's main intelligence agency through this information. Budanov and his subordinates are undoubtedly conducting checks among the people of Odessa. Excessive discussions and information leaks only complicate Russian intelligence operations. I doubt the General Staff would reveal such information. Additionally, we must consider that Odessa is not Sevastopol; its population is complex, with many immigrants from western Ukraine, who have never supported Russia."

"Free News": Have there been historical examples of using underground organizations to help our forces control cities?

"This usually goes hand in hand with our offensive actions. For example, the Prague uprising against Hitler in May 1945 was supported by the 1st Infantry Division commanded by Major General Sergey Buniachenko. Ultimately, our forces captured Prague."

"During the Great Patriotic War, the activities of underground organizations were mostly coordinated by intelligence agencies. For example, the actions of the famous Luginino underground Komsomol organization in Kaluga Oblast in 1941–1942 were coordinated by the senior representative of the State Political Directorate of Luginino District, Vasiliy Zolotukhin."

Retired FSB Lieutenant General Alexander Mikhailov concluded: "I don't think it's very likely that Odessa can be captured solely by underground organizations."

What other plans are being considered for liberating Odessa? "Free News" asked military expert and retired naval captain Vasiliy Dantykin about this issue.

"I don't believe there is a deep underground organization in Odessa. To establish an underground organization, you need to organize in advance, build connections, provide weapons, and conduct training. Has this been done? From the experience of Kharkiv, probably not. However, at the same time, opening up the passage to the Black Sea is one of the main tasks of the special military operation. It is through the sea, including military supplies from NATO countries such as France, Bulgaria, and Romania, that enter Ukraine. As long as Ukraine can reach the Black Sea, we will face threats from that direction."

"Free News": What factors will affect our forces capturing Odessa?

"There is a British military base in Ochakiv, 60 kilometers from Odessa. NATO troops often operate from there. Also, all sea routes leading to Odessa are mined. To place Odessa under Russian control, we first need to liberate Kherson from the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Then, along the coast, by landing troops by sea, we should first capture the city of Nikolaev. Only then will it be possible to proceed towards Odessa."

"It is very difficult to enter Odessa by sea, not only because all routes are mined, but Ukraine may also launch its low-altitude anti-ship missile P-360 'Neptune' from the sea. By the way, this is a Soviet-era development."

"Free News": Some say that Odessa can be captured as early as the end of summer. What is your prediction?

"There are still two months until the end of summer. Our main forces are currently concentrated in the Sumy region, where the fighting is fierce. The United States has already stopped supplying some weapons to Ukraine. According to my prediction, without these weapons, the Ukrainian armed forces can barely last a few months. Therefore, it is expected to happen in the fall."

"However, the experience of the Great Patriotic War shows that it is possible to develop lightning-fast capture plans, like the liberation of Nikolaev from the fascists in March 1944. At that time, the Soviet Army carried out a unique operation: landing troops behind the enemy's lines, which successfully held back the Nazis, who were vastly superior in numbers. I do not rule out that the General Staff will draw on this experience," Vasiliy Dantykin concluded.

At the same time, the military community believes that controlling Odessa requires a political decision. What factors will this decision depend on? "Free News" asked retired naval captain and military science doctor Konstantin Sivkov this question.

"Within the framework of short-term strategic operations, our forces can control Odessa in 2-3 months in principle. But this decision must be made by the state leadership. It will depend on two factors: the possibility of Russia being involved in a war with NATO and the interests of Russian oligarchs who are inclined towards rapprochement with the West. In this case, will our president decide to capture Odessa? Currently, I am skeptical about this."

"We also need to consider that Azerbaijan's policy may force us to open a 'second front.' All of this is the result of the failure of American, Israeli, and Western group actions against Iran. Russia's strategic partner Iran defeated Israel, and they are upset about it, so they want to create a 'second Ukraine' for us in the Caucasus. Azerbaijani President Aliyev is, in fact, a puppet just like Zelensky."

"So, capturing Odessa is a feasible but not easy decision."

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