"The Vietnam War will seem like a bunch of violets": What risks will the US face if it goes to war with Iran?
Author: Pavel Shishkin (ПАВЕЛ ШИШКИН)
June 20, 2025, 11:02 AM
Political scientist Rostislav Ishchenko comments on the possibility of the US getting involved in a war with Iran.
According to him, the likelihood of this happening is currently very high.
"I believe that the probability of the US getting involved in a Middle Eastern conflict within one or two weeks is very high," the expert said.
Ishchenko emphasized that if President Donald Trump could be persuaded that "the war could end within two weeks," the US would definitely attack Iran; if he were made to believe that this war would bring disaster, Trump might exercise restraint. However, the political scientist was completely unsure whether the latter could convince Trump.
"If the US does not attack Iran within the next two weeks, the significance of its involvement in the conflict will no longer exist, and the probability of subsequent participation will decrease more and more. But at present, the probability is extremely high," the expert said.
Meanwhile, this analyst listed the problems and risks that the US might face. For example, what if they cannot crush Iran? Ishchenko explained that Trump does not want to suffer losses in the Middle East and get into a prolonged war – this is not only disadvantageous but also extremely dangerous because related countries and Russia have warned that the risk of nuclear war is rising.
"Should Americans take this risk?" The political scientist questioned.
He pointed out that even if the US gets involved in the conflict without using nuclear weapons, it cannot guarantee that Israel will not use them.
"What if, after the US enters the war, Israel uses nuclear weapons, and the other side retaliates with nuclear strikes against Israel or US military bases? There are many questions, but the core issue is: How long can Israeli civilians endure bombardments if Iranian rockets continue to attack targets for half a year? If Israel seeks peace, will the US continue fighting alone or also seek negotiations? If the goal cannot be achieved – overthrowing the Iranian regime and destroying its nuclear program – then what? If Iran declares 'we will certainly make nuclear weapons now', and the US and Israel are forced to stop military actions, this will be a disaster, and not just a military one, but also a moral and political one." Ishchenko pointed out.
In addition, the political scientist emphasized that the US cannot abandon Israel, otherwise it will lose its foothold in the Middle East. Therefore, Ishchenko believes that Trump is now caught between a rock and a hard place: on the one hand, he needs to support Israel as soon as possible, but on the other hand, doing so will greatly increase the risk of other superpowers getting involved in the conflict.
"At that time, the US will face an extremely grim prospect – compared to the Vietnam War, it will be just a 'bunch of violets'." Ishchenko concluded.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517972625134551606/
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