[By Guancha Network, Wang Yi] As the situation between Israel and Iran continues to escalate, the whole world is watching whether the United States will intervene militarily. The UK's Guardian reported exclusively on June 19 that a key premise for U.S. President Trump to decide on striking Iran was to ensure that the massive bunker-buster bomb could destroy Iran's Fordow underground nuclear facility, but he now has little confidence in this.

According to insiders, Trump was told that dropping the GBU-57 massive bunker-buster bomb could effectively destroy the Fordow nuclear facility, but it seems he did not fully believe this claim, so he has not authorized the strike. Meanwhile, Trump may also be using the possibility of direct U.S. military involvement to pressure Iran to return to the negotiating table.

The report stated that the effectiveness of the GBU-57 massive bunker-buster bomb has been a focal point of debate within the Pentagon. Two American defense officials said that due to the extremely concealed location of the Fordow nuclear facility, only tactical nuclear weapons might be able to destroy it. Trump has not yet considered using tactical nuclear weapons; neither Defense Secretary Higgenbotham nor Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Dan Kane have proposed this possibility during White House Situation Room meetings.

Previously, the American Axios News website also mentioned that it would likely require two GBU-57 bombs, used in sequence to penetrate, to effectively strike the Fordow nuclear facility, but the U.S. military has never publicly verified the feasibility of this strategy.

However, Jackie Heinrich, the White House correspondent for Fox News, denied the Guardian's report on the same day. Heinrich said that senior officials told her "this report is entirely false," and the U.S. is "very confident" that the GBU-57 massive bunker-buster bomb can destroy the Fordow nuclear facility, but at the same time, "all options remain on the table."

GBU-57 Massive Bunker-Buster Bomb - U.S. Air Force

Developed by Boeing of the United States, the GBU-57 massive bunker-buster bomb weighs 13.6 tons, is approximately 6.25 meters long, with a diameter of about 80 centimeters, encased in high-density steel alloy, capable of destroying targets buried as deep as 61 meters underground, "like driving a large nail into the ground with a sledgehammer."

However, the ability of this bomb to completely destroy the Fordow nuclear facility has not been practically verified. Analysts stated that striking a target like the Fordow nuclear facility is the "design goal" of the GBU-57 massive bunker-buster bomb.

Mark Cancian, a former Pentagon official, said that before the development of the massive bunker-buster bomb, the U.S. military once considered using tactical nuclear weapons to penetrate the mountains to destroy the Fordow nuclear facility, but this was politically unacceptable. Therefore, the U.S. invested about $400 million in developing and improving the massive bunker-buster bomb. He said that the U.S. currently possesses about 20 such bombs, "a very special weapon targeting very specific goals."

The Guardian cited American defense officials who heard the briefings as saying that even a strike plan including several GBU-57 massive bunker-buster bombs might not penetrate deeply enough underground, resulting only in tunnel collapse and burying the nuclear facility under rubble.

They were also informed that Israeli intelligence estimated the depth of the Fordow nuclear facility to be around 300 feet (approximately 91.44 meters) underground. If the facility is to be completely destroyed, it may require the U.S. military to first use conventional bombs to soften the ground, followed by a tactical nuclear weapon dropped by a B-2 heavy stealth bomber.

This assessment was made by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), an agency under the U.S. Department of Defense, which previously tested the GBU-57 heavy bunker-buster bomb.

Two knowledgeable U.S. officials explained that using the GBU-57 massive bunker-buster bomb to bomb the Fordow nuclear facility is difficult because the facility was constructed inside a mountain to avoid aerial attacks, and the GBU-57 massive bunker-buster bomb has never been used in similar circumstances before.

Fordow Nuclear Facility - IC Photo

The Guardian pointed out that this highlights the complexity of such strikes and the conditions required for success. Using massive bunker-buster bombs may delay Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, but it won't completely end their plans.

"This is not something that can be ended with one strike," noted Randy Manner, a former deputy director of DTRA and retired U.S. Army brigadier general, pointing out the limitations of the GBU-57 bomb, stating that the Fordow nuclear facility could quickly be rebuilt. "This will only delay the project by six months to a year; destroying it sounds good on TV, but it's not realistic," he said.

Aaron David Miller, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, asked: "How do you clear scientific knowledge from scientists' minds through bombing?"

Moreover, to use such weapons, direct U.S. involvement is necessary because Israel lacks the weapons or aircraft capable of striking facilities at such depths.

The Guardian stated that the GBU-57 massive bunker-buster bomb can only be carried by B-2 heavy stealth bombers with air superiority and requires stable GPS signals to lock onto the target. Although Israel claims to have established air superiority over Iran, a successful strike still requires prior destruction of all GPS jammers and other defenses, as well as ensuring that the GBU-57 massive bunker-buster bomb penetrates deep enough to destroy the facility.

In addition, such military actions are likely to face condemnation and pressure from the international community. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed that the enrichment level of uranium at the Fordow nuclear facility is very high, meaning that a strong strike against it could release radioactive materials into the surrounding area.

Last week, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi expressed deep concern about the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Grossi emphasized that nuclear facilities must never be attacked under any circumstances, as doing so could harm humans and the environment, and warned that the consequences of major attacks could extend far beyond Iran's borders. He urged all parties to exercise "maximum restraint."

This article is an exclusive contribution by the Guancha Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7517902232977687079/

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