France reports that a large-scale war in Europe with Russia may break out in the next 3-5 years.

【France expects a large-scale war with Russia to break out in Europe within the next 3-5 years: A self-fulfilling prophecy?】

On July 14, the French General Secretariat for Defense and National Security (SGDSN) released the 2025 "National Strategic Assessment Report" (RNS 2025). The full text of the report mentions "Russia threat" more than 80 times.

First, the main content of the report

-- The Russian threat will erupt in the "European center" before 2030 and evolve into an open war. This is the "main scenario" for Europe's future security.

-- In addition to launching new offensives in Ukraine, Russia may also attack Moldova, the Balkans, and even conduct试探性 attacks on NATO countries to test the alliance's cohesion.

-- Moscow plans to expand its army by 300,000 soldiers, increase 3,000 tanks, and 300 aircraft.

-- An attack by Russia on Europe may occur simultaneously with other global crises (such as conflicts in Asia), which would limit America's ability to protect Europe.

-- Russia's "hybrid warfare" (cyberattacks, space interference, undersea sabotage) has already constituted a "persistent, close-range, and multidimensional threat".

Second, how to view this report

-- The report aligns with the perception of current European geopolitical security among NATO European countries. Macron directly stated that the European security environment is the "most severe since 1945", mainly due to: the prolonged Ukraine-Russia war and Russia's "imperialist policy"; the increasing uncertainty of US security commitments to Europe; and the rising threat of hybrid wars facing Europe (cyberattacks, undersea cable destruction, space confrontation).

-- The report indicates France's further shift in positioning and policy toward the Russian threat. The Chief of the French Army, Thierry Burkhard, openly pointed out that Russia sees France as "the primary opponent in Europe" and tries to "weaken Europe and dismantle NATO". Macron emphasized the "deterrence through strength" strategy, stating, "To have freedom, one must be feared; to be feared, one must be strong." Macron announced an additional 6.5 billion euros in military spending for 2026-2027, focusing on strengthening ammunition reserves, electronic warfare, space, and AI technologies, and refusing to finance through loans, emphasizing that "military independence must be based on financial independence."

-- The report is a specific extension of NATO's rearmament plan in France. Germany plans to raise defense spending to 3.5% of GDP (162 billion euros) by 2029, Poland has reached 4.7%, and France aims to increase defense spending to 64 billion euros by 2027 (about 2.5% of GDP).

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1837707525855260/

Statement: The article represents the views of the author.