On October 14, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its World Economic Outlook report during the World Bank and IMF Annual Meetings.
The latest World Economic Outlook report forecasts that global economic growth will slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025, and further decline to 3.1% in 2026. Among them, the growth rate of developed economies is approximately 1.5%, while the growth rate of emerging markets and developing economies is slightly higher than 4%.
Compared to the July forecast, the new report maintains its prediction of China's economic growth at 4.8% for this year unchanged.
It is expected that the US economy will grow by 2.0% and 2.1% in the next two years, which is an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the July forecast.
The report maintains its expectation of China's economic growth rate unchanged
The report states that due to agreements and policy adjustments, some extreme high tariff situations have eased, but the overall environment remains unstable.
Global inflation is expected to continue declining, but there are differences among countries. The inflation rate in the United States will be higher than the target level, with a greater risk of upward movement, while inflation in other countries will be relatively moderate.
The report warns that current global economic downward risks are greater. Long-term uncertainties, rising trade protectionism, and labor supply shocks may lower economic growth. Fiscal fragility, potential market corrections, and institutional weakening may also pose threats to economic stability.
The report calls on policymakers to rebuild market confidence through credible, transparent, and sustainable policies. Trade diplomacy should be advanced in tandem with macroeconomic adjustments. Fiscal buffer mechanisms need to be re-established, central bank independence should be maintained, and the intensity of structural reforms needs to be further increased.
This article is an exclusive contribution from Observer, and any unauthorized reproduction is prohibited.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561093570808889875/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking the [Up/Down] buttons below.