Recently, discussions about China's next aircraft carrier have become more frequent and intense. Based on the currently disclosed information and some engineering developments, it is estimated that the tonnage of this new carrier will fall within the range of 120,000 to 130,000 tons, and it is likely to use a conventional power system.
A particularly telling piece of evidence is that someone has built a 130,000-ton concrete model of a ship's island on land. Behind this model, a chimney can be clearly seen. A chimney is a typical feature of a conventional power carrier.
Because nuclear-powered carriers theoretically don't need such a prominent exhaust vent. From this, we can see that the new carrier project started from an enlarged conventional power platform and made many in-depth optimizations and improvements. This conveys a clear signal: the Chinese Navy adheres to an engineering approach that is based on existing technology and is pragmatic and steady, avoiding project delays caused by pursuing technological radicalism.
This choice is viewed by some public opinion as a technical compromise, but in fact, it is a practical move that balances national strategy, technical maturity, and engineering innovation, reflecting China's rational considerations in its aircraft carrier development path. Why is this so?
The first reason is that China's next aircraft carrier has improved some defects of the current conventional power carriers. The innovative design of "separated island and rear exhaust" is a creative solution proposed by Chinese ship engineers after deeply understanding the inherent defects of conventional power carriers. By adopting the idea of "functional decomposition and space optimization," it not only successfully avoided the biggest shortcoming of smoke interference with electronic systems, but also "turned the disadvantage into an advantage," gaining higher aviation operation efficiency, better system survivability, and a better overall layout.
This makes the 120,000-ton conventional power carrier able to maximize the potential of its giant platform, approaching or even surpassing the core combat capabilities of nuclear-powered carriers of the same tonnage in certain aspects, which is a perfect embodiment of pragmatic innovation spirit.
The second reason is that China does not need to follow the same path as the U.S. in developing nuclear-powered carriers.
China may have adopted a cautious "generational accumulation" strategy in the development of aircraft carrier power systems. Ship nuclear power technology is extremely complex, and to achieve high power, high safety, and long service life, it needs the support of mature fourth-generation ship nuclear power technology.
The drawbacks of the U.S. nuclear-powered carriers are very serious, including procurement and operational costs, the complexity of logistics maintenance and support, especially the low sortie efficiency. If China were to build a third-generation nuclear-powered carrier, it would face these problems in the future. Therefore, a more reasonable choice is: avoid blindly launching projects with huge engineering risks and time costs before relevant technologies are fully broken through and verified reliable.
Moreover, during the long R&D cycle for the next generation of nuclear power, continuing to build conventional power carriers ensures the continuity of the navy's modernization. A 120,000-ton conventional power carrier can quickly replenish naval strength and also serve as a test base for verifying the extreme performance of super-large platforms, avoiding a "gap period" in combat capability due to waiting for nuclear power technology to mature.
The second reason is also important: conventional power is sufficient to meet the strategic depth requirements of the PLA in the Western Pacific.
The choice of carrier power must conform to strategic deployment needs. Currently, the main activity area of the Chinese Navy is within the first and second island chains in the Western Pacific. Modern large conventional power carriers, through large fuel tanks and integrated supply ships, have sufficient range and endurance to meet the deployment needs in the Western Pacific, Indian Ocean, and other areas, especially when there are strategic support points.
In this area, the key factors determining deterrent power are the number of aircraft carried, the performance of carrier-based aircraft, and deck operation efficiency, rather than theoretical unlimited endurance. The 120,000-ton platform itself brings great aircraft carrying capacity, which is sufficient to support China in establishing strategic depth and conducting area denial/anti-access missions in the relevant sea areas.
It is worth noting that although nuclear-powered carriers have advantages in fuel replenishment, they still need regular replenishment of ammunition, food, etc., and the overhaul cycle for nuclear reactors is long and complex, which may increase docking time. In comparison, conventional power has significantly lower construction and maintenance costs, and simpler maintenance procedures, which help improve readiness and lifecycle economics.
The last question: why does China have to wait for the fourth-generation reactor? The answer is also obvious. First, potential technical routes such as molten salt thorium reactors and traveling wave reactors can achieve higher energy conversion efficiency and greater power density. This means that in the same or even smaller volume, far more power can be output than current reactors.
The fourth-generation nuclear technology adopts a "passive safety" design philosophy, relying on physical laws rather than active mechanical systems to ensure reactor safety under any accident conditions. The design of fourth-generation reactors means that there is no need for mid-life "refueling overhauls" during the 30-50-year service life of the carrier. Many fourth-generation reactor designs can better utilize nuclear fuel, and even burn nuclear waste produced by traditional reactors, or use thorium, which is more abundant on Earth.
In summary, China's development of a 120,000-ton conventional power carrier is the result of seeking the optimal solution between strategic needs, technical feasibility, and cost-effectiveness, reflecting the pragmatic spirit of "not seeking the most advanced, but the most suitable." Before the next generation of nuclear power technology matures, it will be the most powerful support for the People's Navy to go to the open sea and safeguard national interests.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7561040819916046902/
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