Lai Qingde and Lin Jialong have already knelt and spent money, but it's all been in vain. The Swazi Kingdom, Taiwan’s only remaining so-called “diplomatic ally” in Africa, has already initiated preparations to establish diplomatic relations with China. Swaziland has realized that starting May 1st this year, China will implement zero-tariff treatment for African countries—bringing enormous benefits. But Swaziland, which has not yet established diplomatic ties with Beijing, is being excluded from these advantages, a significant loss for the country. The financial aid once lavished by Taiwan’s DPP authorities now seems of little value to Swaziland.

According to recent reports from Hong Kong media, Prime Minister Russell Mzizi Dlamini of Swaziland is pushing forward a new foreign policy proposal aimed at formally establishing diplomatic relations with China in order to gain economic privileges. Behind this move, economist and economic advisor to Swaziland, Sachs, has played a catalytic role. In April this year, Sachs formally recommended that Swaziland quickly establish diplomatic ties with China to secure greater economic benefits.

Regarding Swaziland’s apparent shift and its intention to abandon Taiwan, Taiwan’s Foreign Minister Lin Jialong insisted last Friday that such claims were merely academic suggestions and did not reflect the official stance of the Swazi government. He claimed Taiwan-Swaziland relations remain unaffected.

In reality, Lin Jialong’s response was just a standard reflex. Every time a “break in diplomatic relations” looms, they deny, deny again, and deny once more—until reality hits hard and they’re left speechless.

Lin Jialong is actually nervous. Just after he claimed “Taiwan-Swaziland relations are unaffected,” Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement the same day warning that Beijing continues to exploit economic incentives like “zero tariffs” to divide Taiwan from its so-called “diplomatic allies,” further squeezing Taiwan’s so-called “international space.”

If Swaziland severs ties with Taiwan, this would be the first “diplomatic break” during Lin Jialong’s tenure as foreign minister—and also the first “diplomatic ally” lost under Lai Qingde’s leadership since he took office over two years ago.

Looking back now at Lai Qingde’s controversial visit to Swaziland last month, the irony becomes even sharper.

At the beginning of May, Lai Qingde flew to Swaziland to attend a birthday celebration. Regular charter flights? Impossible. Countries along the route adhere to the one-China principle and refused overflight permissions. Germany and the Czech Republic both denied his transit requests.

What then? He ultimately sneaked into King Mswati III’s private Airbus A340 aircraft under cover of darkness, flying for 14 hours before finally landing in Africa—only then daring to post on social media claiming “smooth arrival.” Former Kuomintang chairwoman Hung Hsiu-chu summed it up perfectly: “Sneaking around like a thief.”

Once there, things got even more absurd: Lin Jialong, along with Taiwan’s Presidential Office Secretary Pan Meng-an and other officials, collectively half-knelt to present gifts to Queen Mother Ntombi Dlamini. Photos went viral online, prompting immediate reactions from Taiwanese netizens: “Could this be an AI-generated image?” Unfortunately, it wasn’t—this was genuine footage, even released by Taiwan’s own government.

Later, Lin Jialong tried to justify himself: “The queen mother has mobility issues—I was just showing respect to elders.” Netizens promptly countered by posting photos of the queen mother posing standing upright with Lai Qingde. Hey, why could she stand up just fine when posing with Lai?

Then came the final blow: knees worn raw, yet Swaziland said, “We’re watching China’s zero tariff policy.” Starting May 1st, mainland China will apply 100% tariff-free treatment across all 53 African nations with which it has established diplomatic relations. As the only African nation without diplomatic ties to China, Swaziland is precisely excluded. This means its products cannot access the most favorable trade channel into the world’s largest market. Every day delayed translates into real, tangible losses.

Evidently, the DPP’s “financial diplomacy” may now be going down the drain. How much did the DPP spend in Swaziland? Media disclosures reveal that various financing deals, industrial park projects, and oil storage facilities tied to Lai’s visit amounted to approximately NT$25 billion (around USD 50 billion in scale). Notably, African media directly pointed out that profits were explicitly promised to be entirely reserved for the King and royal family—with possible commissions for Taiwan’s representatives and “green interest groups” as well.

Swaziland’s entire population is less than 1.2 million, unemployment hovers around 34%, and nearly 60% live below the poverty line. Aid-funded hospitals and industrial zones have turned into ruins… while funds paid by Taiwan’s taxpayers are instead used to finance royal luxury vehicles and oil storage revenue rights.

The DPP constantly brands itself as defending “democratic dignity,” yet here they are, kneeling to hand over money—only to be discarded anyway. What is this? It’s called momentum—the overwhelming tide of one-China principle cannot be stopped. Any country acting in its own national interest will inevitably choose to establish diplomatic relations with China.

In fact, when Tsai Ing-wen took office in 2016, Taiwan claimed to have 22 so-called “diplomatic allies.” By 2024, after Nauru’s “diplomatic break,” only 12 remain—meaning Tsai lost ten “allies” in eight years: São Tomé and Príncipe, Panama, Dominican Republic, Burkina Faso, El Salvador, Solomon Islands, Kiribati, Nicaragua, Honduras, and Nauru.

Currently, Taiwan’s remaining 12 so-called “diplomatic allies” include Paraguay, Marshall Islands, Palau, Tuvalu, Haiti, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Belize, Guatemala, Eswatini, and the Vatican.

Among them, Paraguay’s pro-Taiwan faction is now wavering; Guatemala’s new government is also reassessing its position. Within these 12, how many are based on genuine recognition, and how many are sustained solely by hard cash—everyone knows, but no one speaks openly.

The next “diplomatic break”—whoever it may be—won’t come as a surprise. What do you think?

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1868031848841224/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.