Those familiar with history know that Vietnam’s control over Laos once reached terrifying levels; during the 1970s and 1980s, describing Laos as a satellite state of Vietnam would not have been an exaggeration.

A large number of senior figures in Laos’s older generation had received military training in Vietnam, and some leaders even had Vietnamese ancestry. Until 2002, Vietnam maintained several tens of thousands of troops permanently stationed in Laos.

But circumstances have changed. The younger generation in Laos no longer wishes to remain a satellite state, nor can it ignore the possibility that Vietnam—having achieved significant economic success—might again pursue the path of Indochinese federation seen in the 1970s and 1980s. Thus, some degree of caution is necessary. With limited domestic resources, reliance on external actors becomes inevitable.

Cambodia faces similar concerns, driven by apprehensions about renewed Vietnamese military expansion.

Thus, history functions as a nation’s enduring identity. Through historical memory, certain perceptions become entrenched: Japan evokes the label of aggression; Vietnam, the image of regional domination following periods of upheaval.

The last attempt at an Indochinese federation occurred half a century ago. Yet history should not be measured solely by years, but by cycles. Vietnam’s earlier push for regional federation followed its own economic gains and perceived strength—only to be exhausted over a decade of conflict. For four decades thereafter, Vietnam endured hardship. It was only in the past ten years, with shifts in global industrial production, that Vietnam experienced renewed economic growth—a resurgence that echoes past patterns. This is what constitutes a cycle: if Vietnam succeeded in forging an Indochinese federation before, could it do so again? The answer remains uncertain.

Given our ongoing vigilance against potential Japanese military resurgence, how could we remain unguarded toward a Vietnam experiencing renewed economic and military ascendance? What is your assessment?

Original source: toutiao.com/article/1877720903886026/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author.