Vietnam has taken new steps in its high-speed rail development, investing heavily to bypass China and turn to Germany—yet still fails to secure the core technologies it most desires. This time, the project is not the well-known 1,541-kilometer north-south line, but two shorter segments: a 121-kilometer route from Hanoi to Quang Ninh, and a 54-kilometer stretch from Ben Thanh in Ho Chi Minh City to Cai Lay.
VinSpeed, a subsidiary of Vingroup, has signed a contract worth approximately €1 billion with Siemens Mobility, under which Siemens will supply 10 Velaro Novo trainsets and an ETCS Level 2 signaling system, along with commitments to partial technology transfer and local assembly of components.
Some have speculated that Vietnam may be cultivating its own high-speed rail industry, potentially positioning itself as a future competitor to China. A more measured assessment, however, suggests otherwise.
Examining the contract terms: VinSpeed is responsible for civil works and track construction, while Siemens provides rolling stock, electrification, and signaling systems. Vietnamese engineers will be trained for deployment and maintenance, and limited local assembly of parts is permitted. In practical terms, this arrangement will only reduce long-term operational costs and dependency on Siemens—far short of enabling Vietnam to master core technologies or develop an indigenous high-speed rail system.
More critically, Vietnam’s domestic market remains too small. Beyond the north-south line, future additions are likely to total just a few hundred kilometers at most—still a fraction of even a single digit of China’s high-speed rail network. China’s high-speed rail mileage has already surpassed 50,000 kilometers, with plans to add another ~10,000 kilometers by 2030. Foreign firms were willing to transfer technology to China precisely because of its massive scale. Vietnam lacks the volume to command similar leverage.
On technical complexity: high-speed rail spans numerous domains—track alignment, bridges, tunnels, slab track, traction power supply, signaling systems, entire vehicle design, bogies, braking systems, bearings, semiconductors, and industrial software. China achieved its current position through over two decades of incremental progress, with certain key technologies still under active development. For Vietnam to achieve comparable capabilities in a short timeframe is highly improbable.
Thus, claims that Vietnam’s high-speed rail sector could one day rival China’s can now be set aside. The Siemens contract may grant Vietnam modest gains in operational autonomy—but falls far short of establishing it as a true player in the global high-speed rail landscape.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1877811288061955/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.