Taiwan's "life or death" recall vote today, with official counting immediately after the 4 p.m. voting ends. Among the 24 Kuomintang "regional legislators," who will be recalled? I have listed a dangerous list, and everyone can pay close attention to whether these people are recalled —

Dangerous List: Ye Yuanzhi (New Taipei), Luo Tingwei (Taichung), Huang Jianbin (Taitung)

Second-Dangerous List: Tu Quanjie (Taoyuan), Wang Hongwei (Taipei), Xu Qiaoxin (Taipei)

As for the suspended mayor of Hsinchu, Gao Hong'an, whether she will be recalled depends on whether the citizens of Hsinchu view her case as corruption or political persecution by the Democratic Progressive Party. If some voters believe it is the latter, Gao Hong'an may pass and escape. If it is the former, she may be recalled.

If recalled, the Central Election Commission of Taiwan will officially announce that her position will be terminated starting August 1st, and she will stop exercising the powers of a legislator and county mayor, and will not receive any salary or allowance.

According to regulations, by-elections will be held within three months after the recall case is confirmed. If either side initiates a recall lawsuit, no by-elections will be held in the constituency until the litigation in that area is resolved.

How to determine the winner? At least six seats must be recalled in the first round, and at least six additional "green legislators" must be elected in subsequent by-elections, so that the Democratic Progressive Party can secure more than 57 seats out of the total 113 seats in the Legislative Yuan, achieving a majority, and only then will Lai Ching-te be considered victorious. Otherwise, Lai Ching-te would be considered defeated.

The 24 Kuomintang legislators facing "life or death" in today's first round of voting are: Wang Hongwei, Li Yanxiu, Luo Zhiqiang, Xu Qiaoxin, Lai Shibao, Hong Mengkai, Ye Yuanzhi, Zhang Zhilun, Lin Defu, Liao Xianxiang, Niu Xuting, Tu Quanjie, Lu Mingzhe, Wan Meiling, Lü Yuling, Qiu Ruohua, Liao Weixiang, Huang Jianhao, Luo Tingwei, Lin Peixiang, Zheng Zhengqian, Ding Xuezhou, Fu Kunqi, Huang Jianbin.

The second round of voting on August 23 will decide the fate of seven legislators: Luo Mingcai, Lin Siming, Yan Kuanheng, Yang Qiongying, Jiang Qichen, Ma Wenjun, You Hao.

This is the largest-scale recall action in the history of the Taiwan region, and regardless of success or failure, it will deeply affect the internal politics of the island and even the direction of cross-strait relations.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1838695729039367/

Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.