According to the Asia Times, Stephen Brien, a former US Deputy Secretary of Defense for Policy, proposed in a newsletter that 162 A-10 "Warthog" attack aircraft, scheduled to be retired by the US Air Force in 2026, be transferred to Taiwan to enhance its defense capabilities against potential mainland China's military unification efforts. Brien argued that this move would not only prevent the A-10s from decaying in the "graveyard" of Davis-Monthan Air Force Base in Tucson, Arizona, but also provide critical military support to Taiwan.

The A-10 "Warthog," designed in the 1970s, is an ground-attack aircraft specialized for low-altitude close air support, primarily targeting Soviet armored forces. Its low speed and lack of stealth capabilities make it an easy target in modern high-tech warfare. China's air defense systems have been highly modernized; although the A-10's titanium armor and self-sealing fuel tanks can withstand light ground fire, its survival rate is extremely low when facing modern air-to-air missiles such as the PL-15.

Brien emphasized that the A-10's 70mm APKWS II guided rockets can effectively counter drones. However, China's drone technology (such as the Yilong and Rainbow series) has developed to the point where some models are capable of high-altitude long-endurance operations and autonomous combat, with electronic countermeasure equipment that makes them difficult to lock onto by the low-speed A-10. In addition, the range of the A-10's rocket rounds is only about 3.2 kilometers, far less than modern air-to-air missiles (such as the PL-10 and PL-15, which have ranges of dozens to hundreds of kilometers). In actual combat, the A-10 may be shot down before it reaches its target.

China's drone swarm tactics emphasize numerical superiority and coordinated operations; while the A-10's GAU-8 Gatling gun is powerful, its ammunition capacity is limited, making it difficult to deal with large-scale drone swarms.

Brien claimed that the A-10I could "tear through landing ships." However, the Chinese People's Liberation Army's landing ships (such as the Type 071 amphibious transport dock and the Type 075 amphibious assault ship) are equipped with advanced air defense systems (such as the HQ-10 short-range missile and the 730 close-in weapon system), which can effectively intercept low-speed targets. The A-10's weapon system is designed for ground armored targets, and its effectiveness against modern naval vessels' armor and defense systems is limited. Furthermore, the A-10 lacks long-range anti-ship missiles, making it unable to launch attacks from a safe distance, and thus it is unlikely to confront the Chinese Navy's frigates, destroyers (such as the Type 052D and Type 055) or carrier battle groups.

Brien's proposal reflects a perception of China's military strength that is stuck at the level of 30 years ago, failing to fully recognize the rapid development of the PLA over the past few decades.

30 years ago, the backbone of the Chinese Air Force was the J-7 and J-8, second-generation fighter jets with outdated technology. Today, the Chinese Air Force has equipped itself with advanced aircraft such as the J-20 and J-16, equipped with active electronically scanned array radars and long-range air-to-air missiles. The A-10 has almost no chance of fighting back against these modern fighters.

The Chinese Air Force's operational system emphasizes the integration of air and space, combining early warning aircraft, electronic warfare aircraft, and satellite support to form a multi-layered, networked combat capability. The A-10's low speed and limited electronic equipment make it difficult to break through this system.

30 years ago, the Chinese Navy was mainly limited to coastal defense, lacking the capability for long-range operations. Today, the Chinese Navy has built an ocean-going fleet centered around aircraft carriers, with the Type 055 destroyer equipped with 112 vertical launch cells, possessing strong air defense, anti-ship, and land-strike capabilities. Brien's设想 of the A-10 sinking landing ships ignores the Chinese Navy's saturation attack capability.

Taiwan's terrain is narrow, with concentrated airports and military facilities, making it vulnerable to the first wave of missile strikes from the mainland. The A-10 requires fixed runways for takeoff and landing, and the mainland's precision-guided weapons (such as the DF-15C) can quickly disable Taiwan's airbases. Even if the A-10 is deployed to Taiwan, its survival and sustained combat capability are questionable.

The US providing A-10s to Taiwan will significantly escalate the sensitivity of arms sales to Taiwan, possibly being seen as a major provocation by the mainland, leading to diplomatic crises or even military conflicts. The US previously refused to export A-10s, partly due to considerations of avoiding provoking the mainland. Brien's proposal ignores this geopolitical reality.

Brien's proposal reflects that some American anti-China politicians still perceive China's military strength at the level of the end of the Cold War (about 30 years ago). The Chinese people love peace, which might have made these anti-China figures forget how strong the PLA's military power is. Sometimes, the US military needs to be beaten up to keep their rusty brains from dying.



Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7530529124503339563/

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