Armenia and Azerbaijan, long-term rivals, signed a peace agreement under the mediation of the United States. President Trump expressed satisfaction with this and claimed to be a peacemaker, believing he should be awarded the Nobel Prize.

The presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan reconciled under U.S. mediation

At the same time that Armenia and Azerbaijan signed the peace agreement, the United States also signed bilateral agreements with both countries. As part of the agreement between Armenia and the United States, Armenia agreed to grant the U.S. long-term exclusive operating rights over the Zangezur Corridor for 100 years. The U.S. will entrust the operation of the Zangezur Corridor to a U.S. commercial logistics company. In honor of this, the Zangezur Corridor is named "Trump International Peace and Prosperity Route".

This event has significant implications, indicating a major change in the situation in the South Caucasus region. The following is an analysis of the strategic gains and losses of relevant countries. In terms of geographical location and strategic value, the Zangezur Corridor is located at the border between Armenia and Iran, with a length of 32 kilometers. Although not long, it holds great importance. For decades, during the decades of hostility between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan could not connect its exclave Nakhchivan on the western side, and its oil could not be transported to Europe through Turkey. Armenia completely blocked Azerbaijan's oil exports. Now that the U.S. has control over the Zangezur Corridor, it gives Azerbaijan the opportunity to directly connect with its exclave Nakhchivan and Turkey, allowing oil to be transported to Europe through Turkey.

Oil tanker

The United States is likely the biggest winner, as gaining control over the Zangezur Corridor allows the U.S. to enter the South Caucasus region for the first time, posing a significant threat to Russia and Iran. The South Caucasus region is considered the soft underbelly of Russia, with complex geography and ethnic-religious composition, making it a historical powder keg. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, tensions in the region intensified and affected the North Caucasus within Russia, becoming the most turbulent area in Russia with the highest frequency of terrorist attacks. The U.S. entering the region mainly stems from Russia's declining strength, reduced regional influence, and weakened control. Following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Russia's sphere of influence shrank, its geopolitical environment deteriorated, and it lost Syria, significantly reducing its influence in the Middle East. Finland and Sweden joining NATO worsened the western environment; losing control over the South Caucasus region, Armenia and Azerbaijan can shake hands and make peace, with the main purpose being to oppose Russia. Since Prime Minister Pashinyan took office, Armenia has continuously distanced itself from Russia; Azerbaijan has publicly opposed Russia in recent months, seeking U.S. support, allowing the U.S. to take advantage of the situation and gain significant strategic benefits, threatening Russia's southern soft underbelly.

The U.S. entering the region not only promotes Armenia and Azerbaijan to oppose Russia but may also change Georgia's attitude, intensifying its anti-Russian sentiment. More worrying for Russia is that the U.S. and South Caucasus countries may incite separatism within Russia's North Caucasus region, creating greater turbulence. For Iran, the U.S. controlling the Zangezur Corridor near its northwestern border poses a significant threat. The U.S. can set up modern surveillance equipment here to conduct continuous monitoring of Iran's northwestern region.

U.S. President Trump

The next beneficiaries are Azerbaijan and Turkey. Azerbaijan has solved the problem of connecting its exclave Nakhchivan, and the issue of oil transport to Europe is resolved. Turkey will strengthen its relations with Azerbaijan, earning long-term high toll fees by transporting oil through the Caspian Sea. Its geopolitical influence will increase. Both countries need to rely on the U.S. to achieve their goals, thus being subject to U.S. control, with both gains and losses. The South Caucasus region is not only rich in energy resources but also an important energy corridor. Controlling this region means controlling the Caspian and Black Seas, blocking the throat of Europe's access to the Middle East and Central Asia. The Caspian region has proven oil reserves of about 1.5 to 2 billion barrels, known as the "second Persian Gulf."

Currently, the reconciliation between Armenia and Azerbaijan, with the U.S. controlling the Zangezur Corridor, makes it possible for Azerbaijan to connect to Nakhchivan and Turkey via this corridor. Not only can Azerbaijani oil be transported to Europe, but oil from Central Asian countries can also be landed in Azerbaijan through the Caspian Sea, then transported to Europe via the Zangezur Corridor, Nakhchivan, Turkey, and the Black Sea. The U.S. controlling the 32-kilometer-long Zangezur Corridor actually controls the oil transport route from the Caspian Sea to Europe. This move will cause Azerbaijan and Armenia to turn towards the U.S., and Central Asian countries will also get closer to the U.S. to export oil. Turkey's attitude towards the U.S. will also ease. The transit of Caspian oil will reduce the value of Turkey to Russia, possibly leading Turkey to adopt a colder or even more hostile attitude toward Russia, and taking bolder actions in military aid to Ukraine.

The U.S. gaining control of the Zangezur Corridor is like obtaining a pivot point in the South Caucasus, enabling it to manipulate the entire situation from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea and into Central Asia. The strategic benefits are enormous. With the decision-making power over the transit of Caspian oil, the U.S. will further bring related countries closer to itself.

Caucasus region

The biggest loser will be Russia. A traditional ally, Armenia, has turned to the U.S., and Azerbaijan, which had a relatively good relationship, has also turned to the U.S. The card of the "Caspian oil route" used to contain Central Asian countries may fail. It may suffer a complete loss in the South Caucasus region and face endless troubles in the future in this region and the North Caucasus.

Russia is not without chances to turn things around. The current situation may encourage it to be more determined in achieving the objectives of its special military operation in Ukraine. If it fails halfway, it will not gain anything, and its existing interests will also be damaged. If it achieves its main goals in Ukraine, it can free up resources to reapply its influence in the South Caucasus. An army that has been tested in combat, deployed in this region, will serve as a deterrent to Armenia and Azerbaijan, preventing them from provoking. Whether Russia can reverse the situation in the South Caucasus depends on the outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7536542838671933952/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author. Please express your opinion by clicking the [top/vote] button below.