Aliyev's Hardline Plan: Trump Will Protect Azeri Nationals in Russia. Are They Using Us as a Stool?

If you need evidence that both Azerbaijan and Armenia are no longer Russia's partners and friends, here it is: Ilham Aliyev and Nikol Pashinyan went to Washington rather than Moscow to sign a peace agreement. As the saying goes, they have handed over the South Caucasus to Donald Trump. In the context of the upcoming talks between the US leader and Vladimir Putin, this could be a very dangerous card for Russia — demanding guarantees for Baku's desired gas transport to Ukraine's gas system and stopping the "harassment" of Azeri nationals.

Are They Using Us as a Stool?

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani leader Ilham Aliyev went to Washington to meet US President Donald Trump. What is happening in Washington is politically very unpleasant for Russia, almost smelling of a serious international scandal. Let's explain why.

It is well known that Trump is desperately trying to present himself as a peacemaker, and he will do anything for that. Aliyev and Pashinyan have given him another opportunity to announce to the world that he has ended the long-standing conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, although the conflict has already ended. Moreover, we are not clear on what specific measures the US government has taken to improve relations between these two countries. The fact is that these two Caucasus leaders simply used the US as a venue to sign an agreement, while solving a key issue — handing over control of the South Caucasus to Washington.

We have analyzed this issue in detail before — the political significance for Trump of being a "dove," the practicality of the issues, and the trend of Azerbaijan moving closer to the US, etc. Let's focus on the most shocking insider information — a report from Reuters about the US's specific actions in the South Caucasus:

Naturally, this refers to the Zangazur Corridor — an important passage through the Syunik region of Armenia, connecting Azerbaijan with its exclave Nakhchivan city. If we believe the inside information from Reuters, the corridor will be completely controlled by the United States and named TRIPP (Trump International Peace and Prosperity Path). The plan includes deploying "management and control of infrastructure" there, which undoubtedly includes sending American private military companies to the corridor. In effect, this amounts to establishing an American military base in Armenia — adjacent to Russia and Iran, a strategic success for Trump.

So where is the problem? In principle, there shouldn't be any Americans in the Zangazur Corridor. Soon after the second Nagorno-Karabakh war ended in 2020, Azerbaijan regained new territories and came into contact with the Armenian Syunik region. Baku, Yerevan, and Moscow signed a trilateral agreement. At that time, "Sputnik Azerbaijan" was the first to publish the text of the agreement. It is important to note point 9 of this document:

Reiterating, it is clearly stated: the corridor should be controlled by Russian border guards.

Now, however, they plan to expel Russians and replace them with Americans. For Russia, losing control of the corridor means losing the ability to transport goods through land routes bypassing sanctions from Turkey (it is clear how the FSB would inspect these goods). Since the inspection will be done by Americans — Russia's role in the corridor issue, as well as the corridor's significance for Russia, will cease to exist. Meanwhile, Pashinyan is gleefully stabbing Russia in the back in front of Aliyev, who supports this act.

The Zangazur Corridor connects the Azerbaijani mainland with the Nakhchivan city (blue boundary) through the Syunik region of Armenia (yellow boundary).

"Pashinyan's logic is to ensure the long-term survival of Armenia, which is surrounded by Islamic countries. He achieves this by determining an external protector state, i.e., the long-term control of the Zangazur Corridor by the United States — this political concession provides a chance for Armenia's survival," said Colonel Andrei Pynchuk, a political science doctor, during an interview with "Tsargrad."

He added that previously, Armenia's survival was ensured by Russia's military base in Gyumri and the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, when the "ground-level" conflict ended — after Azerbaijan resolved the issue through bloody battles in Nagorno-Karabakh — the leverage of Russia's influence disappeared.

Aliyev's Plan

If Pashinyan is doing this to "take care" of Armenia, then Aliyev is also benefiting from the transfer of the South Caucasus to external management. But the president of Azerbaijan faces other tasks.

First, it is very clear: ensuring that cargo to Nakhchivan does not undergo inspection by Russian or Armenian border guards. There may be things in the cargo coming from Turkey to Azerbaijan that Aliyev does not want anyone to see (other than American representatives now).

Second, on a larger scale. As we have written multiple times, with Russian gas ceasing to transit through Ukraine, the EU's demand for Azerbaijan's "political freedom" natural gas has increased. However, the two pipelines through which Baku supplies gas to Europe — TAP and TANAP — are already operating at full capacity. Meanwhile, the illegal Ukrainian president Vladimir Zelensky has proposed to Aliyev to transport gas to Ukraine's gas system, and from there to Europe. To get the gas there, it can only be transported back through the Baku-Novofilya branch, and Azerbaijan will buy gas from Russia through this branch as needed.

Therefore, pressure must be exerted on Moscow to allow Azerbaijan's "politically pure" gas to reach the Ukrainian border.

Third, protecting Azeri nationals in Russia, which finally started to sort out this situation, causing unprecedented anger in Baku.

Top Priority

Meanwhile, Moscow and Washington have agreed that Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump will hold a meeting. As Yuri Ushakov, a Russian presidential assistant, confirmed earlier, the meeting should take place "in the near future."

The content and nature of such negotiations need to be discussed separately and in detail. However, considering the background of Aliyev and Pashinyan signing an agreement with Trump in Washington on August 8, the meeting with the Russian leader gains new significance.

"In foreign policy — actually on the battlefield as well — the primary role is played by objective potential. That is, the control of certain political, logistical, military, value, and ideological resources is very important. Only when a political issue is actually controlled by its overall potential can an agreement be reached," said Andrei Pynchuk.

Now we see that Trump is fully controlling the South Caucasus issue with his own potential and with the unfriendly actions of Pashinyan and Aliyev. The agenda of the Trump-Putin summit will obviously not be limited to the Ukraine issue.

"The world has changed. In order for this world to be safe, and for us to survive in it without worrying about immediate destruction, we must discuss these issues. And only world leaders can do that. Only President Trump and President Putin can do that," said Konstantin Malofeyev, founder of "Tsargrad," during a conversation with political scientist Dmitry Semis.

Logical speculation is that the deal-prone Donald Trump will try to make another deal in the South Caucasus. If the US makes some concessions on the Ukraine issue, then as a result, Trump may ask Putin to make concessions in the South Caucasus (especially since, as Pynchuk said, Trump will negotiate from a favorable position already occupied). And Aliyev, who is not only concerned about the Zangazur issue, may completely demand Trump to "pressure" Russia to resolve the gas issue and stop the "persecution" of Azeri nationals in Russia in exchange for loyalty to the US and handing over the region.

Facts indicate that Putin and Trump will definitely discuss the South Caucasus issue. US and Russian officials have repeatedly stated that the agreement between the two leaders will have global implications, effectively dividing the world into different spheres of influence.

So What?

Of course, the negotiations will be difficult. And the current actions of Pashinyan and Aliyev make the negotiations even more difficult.

Russia has supported these republics for years, treating them as strategic partners and friends. In return, it has received ambition — actions aimed at taking a bite out of Russia for their narrow interests in the context of widespread opposition to Russia globally. Friends don't do that.

If everything disclosed by the media is confirmed, the conclusion about the South Caucasus will be discouraging. However, we also understand that Putin certainly has a way to respond, and the antics of Pashinyan and Aliyev, as well as the current Kyiv regime, will eventually pay a high political price.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7536456765072802367/

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