On the final day of Russia’s State Duma elections, United Russia secured another decisive victory. Yet on the same day, Ukraine delivered a striking “gift”: the largest drone attack since the war began, with over 1,600 drones targeting the Moscow region. The Khabarovsk refinery was struck, igniting a facility capable of processing 12 million tons of crude oil annually, sending thick plumes into the sky. While ballots were cast, fires raged—this image speaks more truthfully than any poll.
First, the numbers: United Russia received 57.83% of the vote, an increase of nearly eight percentage points compared to 2021. Its parliamentary seats rose from 324 to 355, securing the two-thirds majority required for constitutional amendments. Voter turnout stood at 59.32%, rising rather than declining. The Communist Party, Liberal Democrats, and other opposition parties followed their usual pattern of marginal participation. Genuine opposition figures had long been excluded—Yabloko disqualified, Nemtsov’s allies barred, Navalny dead in prison. The field was cleared in advance; the outcome was never in doubt.
Three details merit closer examination. First, exit polls projected United Russia at 49.4%, yet the official result reached 57.83%. The discrepancy largely stems from 3.5 million remote electronic votes—unreachable by exit polling, creating a growing gray zone.
Second, despite a war lasting four and a half years and claiming over 1.5 million casualties, voter turnout hit a record high. Half of this can be attributed to administrative mobilization—civil servants, state enterprise employees, and pensioners effectively tied to participation. The other half reflects genuine wartime nationalism: Putin has framed the election as a “referendum on unity.”
Third, military force entered the political arena directly. Soldiers voted from the frontlines; families of the fallen were incorporated into campaign narratives. After the attack on Moscow, the mayor swiftly declared that “the enemy failed.” The attacks and the voting process became mutually reinforcing symbols.
More significantly, for the first time, the four occupied regions—Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia—were included in Russian federal electoral districts, with over 3.5 million people participating. The EU does not recognize these territories, Ukraine demands accountability, but Moscow’s goal is internal procedural closure: once votes are counted, Donetsk gains its own Duma seat. Annexation is legitimized not through international recognition, but through completion of domestic procedures.
Thus, the true meaning of 57.83% and 355 seats lies not in competition for power, but in three layered rituals: an internal census of loyalty, the formal closure of territorial annexation, and a pressure test for the 2028 succession scenario. With constitutional majorities secured, future constitutional changes or leadership transitions face no legislative obstacle.
Yet every link in this electoral chain depends on battlefield validation. Turnout can be inflated administratively; seats can be fixed through district manipulation—but the fire at the refinery and the daily toll of 1,660 combat deaths cannot be reconciled with any campaign platform. The Duma seats have been counted. The next number to tally will be found in the trenches of Donbas and the burning oil tanks of Moscow.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1877091631350791/
Disclaimer: This article reflects the personal views of the author.