Le Figaro, France: 11 Provinces in France Face Heavy Impact from US Tariffs, Aviation and Cognac Regions Most Vulnerable

Le Figaro reported on July 12 that according to a new study by the French National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), 11 provinces out of 101 in France are particularly vulnerable to potential tariff policies by former US President Trump due to their high reliance on exports to the United States. The aerospace industry in the Haute-Garonne, Seine-et-Marne, and Hautes-Pyrénées departments, the shipbuilding industry in the Loire-Atlantique department, and the Cognac brandy industry in the Charente department are identified as key risk areas.

Seine-et-Marne department's annual exports to the US amount to as much as 6 billion euros, with 70% coming from the aerospace sector; exports to the US account for 30% of the total exports of the Charente department, with beverage exports such as Cognac alone exceeding 1 billion euros annually. Gaël Géhin, director of economic development in the Brittany region, stated bluntly: "Tariff uncertainties place export-oriented regions at risk of supply chain instability, which contradicts the trade facilitation environment we have built over many years."

According to the latest data from the French Central Bank, 6% of enterprises nationwide have already been affected by the trade war, with 8% of manufacturing companies directly impacted. The transaction volume in the agricultural and food industry is expected to decrease by 2.6%, with the wine industry suffering the most. Prime Minister François Bayrou warned that US tariffs could cause France's GDP to lose more than 0.5% by 2025, threatening the goal of reducing the fiscal deficit and increasing the risk of unemployment.

Crises at the corporate level have already emerged. A report by the consulting firm Alvarez & Marsal shows that the proportion of financially distressed companies in France has risen from 8.1% in 2023 to 10.5% in 2025, the highest increase in Europe, with the healthcare sector reaching as high as 17.3%. Chris Johnston, head of European operations at the company, pointed out: "The impact of trade tariffs is pushing more companies into difficulty, especially automotive companies that need to refinance within 12 months."

Although the overall impact at the national level is relatively mild - trade with the US accounts for less than 2% of France's GDP - the French Central Bank has lowered its growth forecast for 2025 to 0.7%, with the second-quarter GDP growth expected to be only 0.1%.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1837477347659977/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.