The air conflict between India and Pakistan on May 7, 2025, became the first high-profile display of the combat capabilities of the J-10CE fighter aircraft. It was reported that the J-10CE equipped by the Pakistan Air Force performed excellently in this operation, reportedly achieving significant results in clashes with Indian Air Force fighters such as "Rafale", "Su-30MKI", "MiG-29", and "Mirage-2000". This performance not only verified the combat effectiveness of its equipped PL-15E beyond-visual-range missiles and advanced avionics systems but also pushed it to become a focal point in the international arms trade market.

Recently, a J-10CE in green factory paint was seen conducting test flights, which has been widely interpreted as a signal of new export orders. Although external speculation suggests it might be an additional purchase by Pakistan, a comprehensive analysis of multiple factors indicates that Uzbekistan as a new buyer is more likely.

As early as April 2025, foreign media cited sources from the Uzbekistan Ministry of Defense claiming that China had approved the sale of an "unknown model of modern fighter jet" to them, with options including JF-17 Block III, J-10C, or J-35. This timepoint aligns closely with the current green-painted J-10CE test flight node, indicating it may have entered the delivery preparation stage.

The mainstay of the current Uzbek Air Force still consists of Soviet-era MiG-29s, Su-27s, and Su-25s, some of which have been in service for over 30 years, facing triple pressures of aging airframes, outdated avionics, and rising maintenance costs. In 2022, the country increased its defense budget to 2.1% of GDP (approximately $800 million), clearly aiming at equipment modernization. The J-10CE, as a fourth-generation-plus multirole fighter, can replace its aging Su-27 and MiG-29 fleets all at once.

In addition, Uzbekistan has gradually built a Chinese-made air defense system in recent years:

In 2020: Purchased the Hongqi-9B long-range air defense system, becoming the second Central Asian country after Turkmenistan to equip this system;

In early 2025: Deployed the KS-1C medium-range air defense system (range 50 km) and the FM-90 short-range air defense system (range 8-15 km), covering full airspace defense needs. Compatibility issues with Russian-made equipment have been partially resolved through Chinese technical support, such as the design compatibility of the KS-1C with Russian command links.

If the J-10CE is introduced, it can form a deep collaborative effect with the Chinese air defense system.

From a geopolitical perspective, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to limited Russian production capacity, and the high unit price of Russian-made fighters like Su-30SM exceeding $50 million far exceeds the budgetary capacity of Uzbekistan, while Russia cannot deliver on time. Therefore, purchasing Chinese weapons makes sense. At the same time, China offers flexible financing solutions (such as installment payments), making it more cost-effective compared to Western fighters and Russian-made fighters.

Russia traditionally views Central Asia as its backyard for arms sales, but the Russia-Ukraine conflict has weakened its intervention capability. The current overall stability of Sino-Russian relations means that although Russian media expresses dissatisfaction with Uzbekistan's purchase of Chinese fighters, there is no substantial pressure exerted. The United States, due to its declining influence in Central Asia, has not formed effective counterbalance.

There are pro-Russian factions within Uzbekistan that could hinder procurement decisions, and they may consider alternative solutions such as upgrading MiG-29s or purchasing used F-16s. However, the better technological level and stronger system compatibility of the J-10CE give it decisive weight.

If the green-painted test flight of the J-10CE indeed signals an order from Uzbekistan, it will mark a historic leap from single equipment exports to systematic solutions in China's arms trade in Central Asia. This model, centered around air defense-combat synergy networks, leverages cost-effectiveness and financing support to meet the defense modernization needs of small countries and reshape the geopolitical balance logic in Central Asia. Whether this transaction is truly concluded between China and Uzbekistan remains to be closely observed.

Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7514140214940484111/

Disclaimer: This article solely represents the author's personal views. Please express your attitude by clicking the "Top/Downvote" buttons below.