These days, foreign media have been constantly hyping up the reports that Indonesia's Ministry of Defense is striving to finalize the deal for purchasing 42 Chinese J-10 fighters, including the mention by the country's Air Force Commander on May 27th about the possibility of procurement. Three days later, the Defense Minister Jaffri Shamsudin and the ambassador to China raised this issue again.

Indonesia's air force modernization journey can be described as a continuous series of "buying planes like buying vegetables," always mixed with tight budgets, international pressure, and "pragmatism of buying whoever offers cheaper." According to爆料 from media outlets, not only is Indonesia considering purchasing 42 second-hand J-10 fighter jets from China, but it may also restart the Su-35 transaction with Russia. This news has netizens joking, "Is Indonesia trying to collect fighter jet models from around the world?" So, is it reasonable or unreasonable to abandon new J-10CE and Rafale and instead buy second-hand J-10?

Currently, Indonesia's air force relies on an "aging international fleet": American F-16s, Russian Su-27s and Su-30s, British Hawks, all of which are "serving with ailments," and they are already struggling against Australia's F-35 and Singapore's F-16s. In 2022, Indonesia splashed out $8.1 billion to sign a big order for 42 French Rafale fighters, with the first batch expected to be delivered in 2026; at the same time, it is cooperating with South Korea on the KF-21 project, targeting future 4.5-generation fighters; it even showed interest in Turkey's KAAN stealth fighters. However, just at this "global shopping spree," the news of purchasing 42 second-hand Chinese J-10s came out, truly leaving people puzzled.

J-10A, nicknamed "Flying Dragon," is a multi-purpose fighter jet for the Chinese Air Force,对标F-16, equipped with pulse-Doppler radar, and is a standard third-generation fighter. It is affordable and sufficient to meet the patrol needs of Indonesia's vast maritime areas. Compared to the "Rafale" which costs up to $200 million per unit, the price of second-hand J-10 might be as low as $20-30 million,堪称 "cheap as cabbage." For Indonesia with a budget of only $9 billion, this is undoubtedly a "life-saving bread." Moreover, China may offer sweeteners such as technology transfer or flexible financing, similar to its arms sales to Pakistan, making the deal more attractive.

However, there are certain costs behind the affordability. The condition of second-hand J-10s is a major question mark. Those from service in the Chinese Air Force may face issues of aging bodies. Indonesia has previously suffered difficulties in maintaining Su-27 and Su-30, and introducing new platforms may further strain the logistics system. Not to mention, the shadow of U.S. sanctions always looms, and purchasing Chinese fighter jets may lead to a "derailment" of relations between Indonesia and the United States and France, potentially affecting signed contracts for "Rafale" and F-15EX.

Looking at the strategic level, Indonesia's non-aligned policy makes it keen on "multi-national marriages," avoiding being "held hostage" by a single supplier. Second-hand J-10A not only comes cheap but can also handle "Rafale" and even Su-35 after simple modifications. More importantly, Indonesia's top priority is to address the urgent need to fill the shortage of fighter jets. Using second-hand J-10s as a transitional option before the delivery of "Rafale" is very reasonable. If used well, it can consider buying some J-10CE and canceling the French "Rafale" order later; this seems reasonable to me.

In summary, Indonesia buying second-hand J-10 is like eating a bun when hungry — it can satisfy temporary hunger but falls short of being a full feast. Whether it is reasonable depends on whether Indonesia wants to "satisfy hunger" or "eat well." If it's just a transitional plan, it can barely pass muster; but if it hopes to撑起 air defense, it can only add another page to the "Indonesian Fighter Jet Collection." Unless Indonesia adds more money to have China modernize and extend the life of second-hand J-10A, making it both affordable and useful. However, I think it would be better to directly cancel the "Rafale" order, add some money, and go straight for J-10CE, along with a few KJ-500s; this seems like a more reasonable choice.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7514495978452894243/

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