The U.S. media, "Military Observation Magazine," published an article reporting that Azerbaijan has invested $4.6 billion to purchase an additional 40 JF-17 Block 3 fighter jets from China. The article claims that this is a major demonstration of the increased confidence in Chinese equipment following the impressive performance of Chinese-made aircraft in the South Asian air combat, where they shot down Indian aircraft. The article also points out that the Bangladesh Air Force is another potential user of the JF-17 fighter jets, as the country is also in its fleet renewal phase and may soon choose to acquire the JF-17 fighters to replace its aging J-7 aircraft.

For the Chinese military export industry, this is undoubtedly good news. It indicates that as more outstanding performances of Chinese equipment are displayed on the battlefield, the global market's recognition of Chinese equipment is also increasing. In the future, Chinese equipment may occupy a higher position in the global arms sales market.

To understand how Chinese equipment can reach a broader market, today we will use Azerbaijan as an example to discuss the export prospects of Chinese equipment after the South Asian air combat.

01. Why Does Azerbaijan Favor the JF-17?

As a user that has already started receiving the JF-17 fighter jets, it is not surprising that Azerbaijan chose to continue purchasing more JF-17 fighter jets. However, for Azerbaijan, which spent only $3.78 billion on defense last year, a $4.6 billion order is quite a significant move.

In addition, historically, the country's air force did not have many aircraft, once only equipped with 25 Soviet aircraft. Suddenly purchasing a large number of Chinese aircraft clearly exceeds the need for simple updates; the political factors behind it are significant.

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev personally boarded the country's first JF-17 fighter jet.

Moreover, there is an intriguing question in this additional order: during the recent South Asian air combat, the J-10CE fighter jets performed impressively, so why did Azerbaijan choose to add more JF-17 fighter jets, which had no records of shooting down enemy aircraft, instead of directly choosing the export version of the J-10 fighter jets?

In fact, Azerbaijan's order is not a one-time purchase of 40 fighter jets but an extension of the 2024 order. Last February, Azerbaijan signed a contract to purchase 16 JF-17 fighter jets, and then in May this year, they additionally ordered 24 JF-17 fighter jets, bringing the total value of the order to $4.6 billion.

For Azerbaijan, this is an important step in upgrading their air force, involving the long-term air force development plan for many years to come, and belongs to a long-term strategic investment.

This is also one of the main reasons why Azerbaijan chose the JF-17 rather than the J-10CE. From the country's long-term strategic perspective, expanding the fleet size and improving quality are equally important directions. $4.6 billion is likely the limit of what the country's finances can accept. If they choose the more advanced J-10CE fighter jets, the procurement quantity would decrease, and the full-life usage cost would rise significantly. In contrast, the JF-17 fighter jets, with lower procurement prices and lower full-life usage costs, are a more cost-effective choice.

Although not a one-time purchase, this doubling order demonstrates Azerbaijan's determination and trust in Chinese equipment, and this is inseparable from Pakistan's performance.

02. What Are the Performance and Geopolitical Considerations Behind the JF-17 Orders?

According to Pakistani sources, during the skirmishes in early May, Pakistan Air Force's JF-17 Block 3 fighters successfully destroyed India's S-400 air defense system. This capability to suppress and attack ground air defense units is precisely what Azerbaijan needs.

Pakistani-equipped JF-17 fighter jets

Azerbaijan is a country with a very complex geopolitical situation. The country has tense relations with neighboring Armenia, and there was a brief conflict in 2020. At that time, Azerbaijan relied on its air superiority to gain the upper hand in the conflict. Therefore, the multi-role JF-17 fighter jets, which excel in both air-to-air combat and ground strikes, are highly favored by the country.

Meanwhile, Azerbaijan's relationship with Russia is quite delicate. The Russo-Georgian War, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and last year's plane crash incident have made Azerbaijan distrustful of Russia. At this time, if there is a fighter jet capable of demonstrating the ability to penetrate and destroy Russian air defense systems in actual combat, Azerbaijan naturally pays attention to it.

Azerbaijan's equipped Turkish TB-2 drones

Additionally, Azerbaijan maintains close ties with Turkey, and the JF-17 fighter jets have excellent munitions compatibility, capable of using various air-to-ground munitions produced by Turkey. This is an important geopolitical advantage for Azerbaijan.

Thus, under the dual considerations of geopolitics and economics, Azerbaijan ultimately decided to increase its purchase of JF-17 fighter jets.

This is a common characteristic of many buyers of Chinese military equipment, who face complex geopolitical environments or difficult financial situations. Whether current users of J-10CE and JF-17, or countries like Bangladesh and Uzbekistan that may purchase JF-17 fighter jets in the future, share similar characteristics. From this, we can see the future direction of the development of Chinese equipment exports.

03. Future Focus of Chinese Equipment Export Development Lies in Geopolitical Influence

We can confidently say today that after Chinese weapons demonstrated their excellent performance on the battlefield, the international community has no longer any concerns about the practical capabilities of the Chinese combat system and the cost-effectiveness of Chinese equipment. The stereotype that Chinese weapons are "cheap but not good" maliciously propagated by the West has been broken. The previous major obstacle to Chinese equipment exports, namely the issue of external confidence in the capabilities of Chinese equipment, has actually been resolved.

In the future, when exporting Chinese weapons, more attention needs to be paid to geopolitical factors.

J-35/FC-31 on display, indicating that China's equipment now covers all price ranges.

For many countries lacking self-production capabilities, purchasing foreign weapons is actually a political statement, sending signals to the equipment seller, potential defense pressure objects, and regional geopolitical players. Most buyers hope that these political signals lead to balanced political impacts, avoiding deterioration of their own geopolitical situation due to military purchases.

Therefore, we often see some counterintuitive behaviors in many international arms sales. The most classic examples include Australia's cancellation of the French submarine deal, Indonesia's urgent suspension of purchasing Su-35s, and France's refusal to deliver "Mistral" vessels.

Specifically regarding Chinese equipment exports, many potential buyers of Chinese equipment are aware of its superior combat capabilities and want to purchase them. However, they are constrained by their own circumstances and can only choose American or Russian equipment.

Even Azerbaijan, which doubled its purchase of Chinese equipment this time, could not have bought Chinese equipment over a decade ago. In the past geopolitical environment, Russia had too much influence on the country. Purchasing Chinese equipment meant challenging Russia's geopolitical influence in Eastern Europe to Western Asia. For Azerbaijan's defense needs at that time, advanced equipment was excessive.

"Mistral" is a direct reflection of military sales influenced by geopolitical factors.

However, after the 2014 Crimea incident, countries in Eastern Europe, Western Asia, and Central Asia that were influenced by Russia generally felt a sense of crisis. Azerbaijan began to contact China and seek to purchase Chinese equipment at this time. However, at that time, Azerbaijan's demand was not strong, and the country still had doubts about whether China could become a reliable partner and whether the transaction would provoke Russia. Therefore, relevant contacts continued until 2020 without clear results.

But after the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in 2020, Azerbaijan's defense needs surged. After the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022, Russia's ability to exert influence in Eastern Europe also greatly decreased. At this time, China, as a global stabilizing force, has become a reliable arms sales partner. Combined with the excellent performance of Chinese equipment, within just a few years, Azerbaijan decided to purchase and increase its purchase of Chinese fighter jets.

Therefore, the main prospect for the future of Chinese equipment exports lies in whether China can continue to expand its influence, whether it can firmly implement its geopolitical strategy and economic initiatives, and make more countries trust China as a major global stabilizing force, bringing more security options to the world.

At least for now, we are still on the right path, still bringing growing security confidence to more countries. We believe that as China moves forward, more countries will entrust their national defense security to Chinese equipment. Chinese equipment exports will迎来 new prosperity, and the global geopolitical landscape will develop toward stability and peace under the influence of this new security option.

Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7515019041028522507/

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