Recently, Pakistan and Afghanistan have experienced the most intense military clashes in the border areas since the Taliban regained power in Afghanistan in 2021, resulting in multiple casualties on both sides. As of October 12, large-scale fighting has basically ceased, but the border situation remains tense. Notably, this battle occurred at a sensitive time, when the Afghan Foreign Minister was visiting India.

How should we interpret Pakistan's recent tough measures against Afghanistan? What role has India played in the conflict? How should the international community promote dialogue between Pakistan and Afghanistan? Observers.com specially invited Liu Zongyi, Director of the South Asia Research Center at the Shanghai Institute of International Studies, to provide an in-depth analysis, revealing the security logic behind the Pakistan-Afghanistan clashes and the complex games in South Asia.

Observations.com: The tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan have long existed. Why did Pakistan choose this time to bomb Kabul?

Liu Zongyi: I think the timing is related to the visit of the Afghan Foreign Minister to India. The Afghan Foreign Minister met with Sujan Singh and issued a joint statement. Pakistan has always been very dissatisfied with the strategic cooperation between the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and India, as this would put Pakistan in a situation of being attacked from both sides again - during the period of the previous Ghani government, Afghanistan had signed a strategic partnership agreement with Modi's government, which posed a strategic pressure on Pakistan, and this was also one of the important reasons why Pakistan supported the Taliban to overthrow the Ghani government. After the Taliban took power, Pakistan initially thought it could control the Taliban, but in fact, the Taliban quickly broke free from its control, and there were frequent clashes along the border between the two countries.

Faced with the dual potential threats from India and Afghanistan, Pakistan cannot tolerate it. Pakistan chose this time to launch air strikes, not only to eliminate actual security threats, but also to send a strong warning to the Taliban.

Observations.com: Afghanistan claims to have completed "retaliatory actions," while Pakistan promises to respond "firmly and effectively" to every provocation. Do you think the conflict will escalate further, or will it move towards dialogue for resolution?

Liu Zongyi: The conflict may temporarily cease, even if there are subsequent attacks, they will be limited to a certain extent. Because the military strength of Afghanistan is far inferior to that of Pakistan. The Taliban has already proposed a ceasefire on the 12th, but Pakistan still carried out relatively deep bombing, possibly to make the Taliban truly feel "pain" and realize the cost of provocation.

Some Middle Eastern countries, such as Saudi Arabia, have already intervened in mediation. The surrounding major powers, including China and Russia, will not sit idly by. In fact, China has done a lot of work through the foreign ministers' mechanism of China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, as well as the small multilateral mechanisms of China, Russia, Iran, and Pakistan, to resolve the Afghanistan issue and ease the tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Observations.com: It has been four years since the Taliban returned to Kabul. How do you evaluate their governance level?

Liu Zongyi: In terms of great power diplomacy, I think the Taliban have some confusion in their understanding of the regional situation and their judgment is not objective enough.

For example, before the "May 7 Air Battle," India was preparing to strike Pakistan. At that time, two countries supported India: one was Iran, whose foreign minister went to India to sign a strategic cooperation agreement, but after the "May 7 Air Battle," Iran's attitude changed significantly, and India actually stood on Israel's side in the military strikes against Iran by Israel and the United States in June; the other country was Afghanistan, and the Taliban seems to still haven't come to their senses yet.

Additionally, the Taliban have also made some changes in their policy toward China, such as canceling the Chinese enterprise's oil field project in the Amu River, and getting closer to India. This shows that the Taliban lack a clear understanding of the changes in the regional structure and the balance of power among major countries, and even show a tendency to swing back and forth. There are reports that there has been a heated debate within the Taliban on whether to allow the US to return to Bagram Air Base, reflecting their lack of consensus on the future direction of the country.

This policy uncertainty partly stems from the cognitive differences between the clergy class and pragmatic administrative officials, as well as other internal contradictions. On the other hand, it may also be because the decisions of the highest leader of the Taliban, Akhundzada, are often based on his simple tribal consciousness or national consciousness, and his personal understanding of Islamic teachings, rather than a scientific assessment of the world situation, leading to a closed and conservative perception.

Observations.com: What is the current attitude of the Taliban toward the "Pakistan Taliban"?

Liu Zongyi: Actually, they take a tolerant or even supportive attitude.

The core of the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict is the "Durand Line" issue, i.e., the question of the归属 of Pashtunistan. This is a historical problem left over from the British colonial era, now becoming an irreconcilable contradiction between Pakistan and Afghanistan. The area is mainly inhabited by Pashtuns, and both the Taliban and the Pakistani Taliban originate from here. Although the tribal structure dominates, due to the identification with the "Pashtun nation," they believe this area should belong to Afghanistan. The Pakistani military once hoped to support the Taliban to seize power, thereby controlling the Taliban and suppressing the Pakistani Taliban. However, the Taliban's re-taking of power had a strong demonstration effect on the Pakistani Taliban, stimulating and encouraging their resistance activities.

This issue has no solution: Pakistan will not give up its northwestern border territory, while the Taliban's long-term goal is to achieve so-called "unification." Now, besides this fundamental contradiction, there is also the issue of Afghan immigrants. Pakistan hopes to repatriate Afghans who fled to Pakistan during the Afghan war, but many of them have lived in Pakistan for several generations, and their identification with Pakistan is even greater than with Afghanistan. Moreover, Afghanistan cannot support them, but Pakistan cannot provide enough jobs, leaving them without a way out.

"Durand Line"

Only through development can the contradictions be alleviated, but Pakistan's domestic contradictions are complex, especially the security issues (mainly from the Pakistani Taliban and Baloch rebel forces, and the two have a trend of union, which means the challenges are escalating) and internal political struggles (including disputes among parties, families, and local forces), making development difficult.

Observations.com: This conflict occurred during the visit of the Afghan Foreign Minister to India. What role do you think India played in this Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict?

Liu Zongyi: India undoubtedly played a certain role. India continuously accuses Pakistan of supporting terrorism in the Indian-controlled Kashmir region in the international community, but in fact, the rebel forces and terrorist organizations within Pakistan, including the Pakistani Taliban, almost all have the shadow of Indian support.

Previously, some people thought that the Indian BJP, which believes in Hindu nationalism, opposes Muslims, and is unrelated to these forces. Indeed, India had always opposed the Taliban in Afghanistan. But now, they see Pakistan as a common enemy, and the saying "the enemy of my enemy is my friend" makes Indians, especially their intelligence agencies, use these forces to sabotage Pakistan and the "China-Pakistan Economic Corridor." In other words, this is not a matter of terrorism, but a proxy war.

In fact, recent rumors about China-Pakistan relations on Chinese domestic self-media platforms are largely traced back to India, including the so-called story that Pakistan secretly transferred advanced Chinese weapon systems to Turkey, and that Pakistan uses Chinese technology and equipment to produce rare earth minerals for export to the United States. India stirs up trouble and exaggerates these stories. I estimate that a large part of this information is deliberately fabricated by Indians. Because the "May 7 Air Battle" proved that the Chinese weapons in Pakistan's hands can deal a fatal blow to India, and Pakistan has claimed to introduce the J-35, which makes Indians very nervous. Therefore, Indians are most worried about China and Pakistan continuing to strengthen their relationship, especially in the fields of military and defense cooperation.

Observations.com: Pakistan demands that Afghanistan ensure that its territory is not used for terrorist activities, while Afghanistan emphasizes the inviolability of sovereignty. In the face of the opposing positions of both sides, what substantive measures can the international community, such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, take to promote dialogue?

Liu Zongyi: Due to the India-Pakistan conflict, the functions of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on counter-terrorism and other issues are limited. The more feasible way is to promote bilateral or small multilateral cooperation within the SCO framework. If it comes to discussing and passing some major issues, it may need to exclude certain countries, which might be the most effective path under the current conditions.

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